One Case Study Proves Early Spread
But what it really proves is we should not trust the alleged experts
Author’s note: I’m not a scientist or doctor, but in this article I think I “prove” that Covid existed in America in the winter and fall of 2019. I accomplish this by simply highlighting medical details of one couple who almost certainly had Covid in December 2019.
The fact this couple had Covid when the disease wasn’t supposed to be in America - coupled with the fact the novel coronavirus is very contagious - tells me the official narrative regarding the origination dates of this virus has been wrong all along.
That this has not been acknowledged by public health experts, authorities or the mainstream press should be viewed as a major scandal.
In my opinion, no pronouncement regarding Covid topics promulgated by leaders of these institutions should be trusted.
Re-stated for emphasis: Far too many people continue to trust authorities who should not be trusted, people and organizations who are, in fact, very dangerous and unusually duplicitous … and who should be exposed as such. Public health and quality of life will be enhanced in the future if such people are exposed and prevented from perpetrating policies that produce misery and hardship of epic scale.
I welcome feedback from readers (or public health experts) telling me why my conclusions are erroneous.
One contrarian component of my “early spread” hypothesis is that early spread can be “proven” by simply looking at relevant details of individual case histories.
One of the most-compelling “early spread” cases I’ve identified is the early cases of Tim and Brandie McCain of Sylacauga, Alabama, who I wrote about in a feature story published in June 2020. If Tim and Brandie did indeed have Covid, and if this virus is as contagious as most people believe it is, logic would suggest that millions of people had already been infected by the end of 2019.
The Official Narrative is …
The official origination narrative is that the novel coronavirus originated from bats in caves in China and the bats later infected other animals. The virus then “jumped species” via infected animals at a live market in Wuhan China in December 2019. (Other authorities state virus spread began in Wuhan the prior month in November).
Significantly, this theory would rule out the possibility anyone in any other other country was infected by this virus prior to December or November. More importantly, this theory - if accepted as sacrosanct - rules out the possibility this virus was created in a lab and later escaped either by accident or intentionally.
In effect, this theory posits there is no need to investigate the “lab-origin/escape” theory. If accepted as “settled science,” the “natural origin” theory would protect the individuals and governments that actually caused the Covid pandemic and all the disastrous responses that were mandated to mitigate the threat of this virus.
However, if it could be proven that this virus had indeed been spreading around the world prior to December 2019, the Wuhan live market “natural origin” theory would obviously be debunked.
If this happened, legitimate investigators could perhaps identify the true origins of this virus and who was responsible for this epic calamity, which might have been caused not by bats, but by rogue scientists performing “gain-of-function research” funded by tax-payers.
Strong incentive to point people in another direction
This preface, in my opinion, explains why certain individuals and agencies might have a strong incentive to ignore compelling evidence of early spread outside of Wuhan, China.
It should also be noted that if this novel virus was already being transmitted around the world to millions of citizens prior to the Wuhan live market, the lockdowns mandated to slow or stop the spread of this virus in mid-March 2020 had no chance of achieving this goal and were, thus, unnecessary.
If certain officials knew this spread was occurring and still lobbied for these unprecedented restrictions on human freedom, these officials perpetrated another “crime against humanity.”
The same people who may have created the virus in the first place, and allowed it to escape, then figuratively imprisoned billions of citizens under a pretense (slowing spread) they must have known was impossible to achieve.
It is also likely that any effort to mandate an experimental gene therapy “vaccine” (produced at “warp speed” with no real safety trials) would have been far less successful if the public was aware of the (likely) fact that many millions of people had already contracted the virus and: A) had not died (meaning the virus was not nearly as “deadly” as advertised), and B) had probably already developed natural immunity to at least one strain of the virus.
It is within this context that readers hopefully see how two early cases in Sylacauga, Alabama could have massive significance - that is, if these cases had been “confirmed” as Covid, which they never were (and probably never will be).
Lastly, it offends logic and common sense that the facts and arguments laid out in this article have been ignored or dismissed by individuals and institutions who purportedly embody the “best and brightest” of our society.
Even if no massive, on-going conspiracy to cover-up the truth has occurred, the other possibility - that no “experts” could figure out “early spread” was occurring - would be almost as disturbing.
Summary of Evidence …
It should be noted that both McCains had developed signature Covid symptoms by December 26, 2019 (if not earlier) and the first confirmed case in America, according to the CDC, is still reported as January 17, 2020 (a man who had recently returned to Washington state from Wuhan, China). So Tim McCain (and his wife) had Covid at least 22 days before the first official case in America.
The McCains would have been infected approximately two weeks after the first case traced to the Wuhan live market (approximately Dec. 10, 2019).
The “evidence” which convinces me (beyond a reasonable doubt) that Tim and Brandie McCain had Covid includes the following factual points:
* Tim and Brandie McCain both tested positive for Covid antibodies in late April 2020. (Tim received only one antibody test, which was positive, and his wife has now received at least three positive antibody results.)
* The McCains’ first antibody test results were from an ELISA antibody assay marketed by Abbott Labs, which is said to be the “gold standard” of antibody tests.
* If “false positives” explain their antibody results, the McCains got four such “false positive” results from different tests and labs.
According to my research, Covid has approximately 11 signature symptoms. Tim McCain experienced all 11 of these symptoms.
According to my research, people whose disease progresses to a severe case have five or six clinical markers. Tim McCain, who was hospitalized for 24 days in a Birmingham, Alabama ICU unit, checks every one of these clinical or “disease progression” boxes (ARDS, cytokine storm, suddenly-developing pneumonia, organ failure, elevated D-dimer levels, sepsis, etc).
After their illnesses in December/January, the McCains never experience any symptoms associated with Covid.
Finally, the McCains never had (PCR-confirmed) Covid after March 2020, which suggests they may have developed natural immunity from their December 2019 illnesses.
My effort to debunk the arguments that attempt to explain
why the McCains did NOT have Covid in December 2019 …
A finding that the McCains did not have Covid in December 2019 would require one of two determinations:
A) The McCains’ antibody test results were wrong and continually produced “false positives.” Or …
B) The McCains’ positive antibody results were explained by later asymptomatic cases.
Both scenarios, while theoretically possible, would seem to be highly implausible.
It is also important to note that authorities have not attempted to debunk the McCains’ possible cases in that no public health officials have ever investigated their possible cases. Still, in general, the above two points are the arguments experts and commentators have used to debunk all possible cases of “early spread.”
The fact officials are able to reach these conclusions without even bothering to talk to individuals with antibody-evidence of early infection … or never made the effort to examine available medical records …. or didn’t see the need to administer new antibody tests of their own choosing … or performed no “contact tracing” investigations of possible “case zeroes” in the country or world … is perhaps the greatest tell that alleged “investigations” into early spread should not be viewed as credible.
The fact the McCains received FOUR positive antibody tests makes it unlikely all four tests were flawed or produced the wrong results every time. And, as noted, the initial tests both McCains received was from an ELISA assay said to be highly-reliable.
It’s also very unlikely two people who had all the Covid symptoms in December would later be among the first people in their state to develop Covid, and both cases happened to be asymptomatic. (Remember, neither McCain was sick after December/January).
IgM negative results rule out ‘recent infection’ ….
An important feature of the McCains’ antibody results is the fact both tested negative for IgM antibodies.
Per numerous studies, it takes several days (or up to 14 days after the onset of symptoms) for the body to produce antibodies that can be detected in a test. The IgM antibodies, once detected by antibody assays, typically last only 30 days. This means if a person tests negative for this particular antigen, this person has not been recently infected.
The McCains, in fact, tested positive for the IgG antibody, which (at least in some people) can last for years … which has actually been the case with Brandie McCain, who has now received at least three positive antibody tests.
Another important early spread case study …
Michael Melham, the mayor of Belleville, New Jersey, was sick with Covid symptoms in November 2019. Melham later received two positive antibody tests, the first in late April 2020. Melham also had the same combination of antibody results as the McCains- negative IgM (recent) antibody and positive IgG (long) antibody.
Mayor Melham was also never sick after November. This combination of assay results also suggests Melham’s positive results were the result of an illness he experienced 5 1/2 months before he received his first antibody test. Common sense would suggest Mayor Melham developed Covid when he experienced many of the symptoms of Covid - in November 2019.
The first positive PCR-confirmed case of Covid in Alabama was reported on March 13, 2020. If the assumption is that both McCains developed asymptomatic cases (which would explain their positive antibody tests), the time window when both McCains could have been infected (if both received a negative IgM result) would have been very small.
If Tim McCains’ first Covid symptoms were December 26, he was infected at least two to 14 days earlier, meaning the latest he could have contracted the virus was December 24th. As noted, the first “confirmed” case in Alabama was recorded on March 13, 2020. This means Tim McCains’ case occurred at least 79 days before Alabama’s first official case.
Per my understanding of IgM antibody results, the McCains could not have been exposed to the virus after approximately March 23rd (otherwise they would have tested positive for the “recent” IgM antibody).
This antibody result means they contracted the virus before March 23rd. Again, the first confirmed case in Alabama was March 13th, which means both McCains must have contracted one of the very first cases of Covid in the entire state.
Per this scenario/explanation, not only did both McCains happen to develop two of the earliest cases of Covid in Alabama, they both happened to develop asymptomatic cases (as neither experienced Covid symptoms after January).
When you multiply one remote probability by another ….
Since the the odds anyone develops an asymptomatic case of Covid are perhaps 50 percent, the odds two people would both develop asymptomatic cases would be 25 percent (1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4).
The odds anyone in Alabama would develop a “case” of Covid, symptomatic or asymptomatic, in March or early April 2020, (per the official “case” statistics of the time) was 1-in-many thousands.
To calculate the probability both McCains became infected (when few others in their state had been) and both had asymptomatic cases would require multiplying one small probability fraction (1/4) with another much more microscopic fraction (1/100,000 or 1/25,000?)
Similarly, statistics professors presumably could calculate the odds any one antibody test would produce a “false positive.” This professor could then calculate the probability one of these same people would get another “false positive” result from a different test and then yet another “false positive” from still another test.
While statistically possible, both scenarios attempting to explain why the McCains did not have Covid when they think they did, would seem farfetched in the extreme.
Do Covid symptoms matter or not?
With other diagnostic tests, doctors also consider other corroborating clinical evidence.
For example, the PCR test results are controversial due to the the large number of cycle thresholds that were used to obtain/diagnose most “positive” results. However, if someone tested positive for Covid with a 25-cycle test and this person also happened to have experienced all the Covid symptoms, doctors can probably say with near certainty that this person, in fact, has/had Covid.
Similarly, with antibody results, it would seem more likely that doctors would agree the positive test results “captured” a real case if the person who got the test happened to have experienced all the Covid symptoms several months before receiving his or her test.
That is, Tim and Brandie’s multiple positive antibody results would be more likely to be dismissed as “false positives” if doctors knew this couple had never experienced any Covid symptoms. However, the fact both McCains experienced virtually every Covid symptoms 4 1/2 months before they received their antibody test gives much greater credence to their subsequent positive antibody results.
How would the McCains have caught this virus?
The possibility both McCains happened to have been infected by the novel coronavirus in late March or early April 2020 is even smaller when you consider Tim McCain was released from a Birmingham hospital on January 28, 2020 and spent most of the next month recuperating at his home in Sylacauga (population 13,000).
By the time Tim came home from the hospital, Covid was becoming the big international news story and the McCains were worried about Tim contracting this virus, which might have been fatal to him in his weak condition.
Per interviews with the couple, the McCains were taking precautions to prevent infection, meaning Tim was around very few people who could have infected him in March or early April. Brandie was also around very few people as she was at home taking care of her sick/recovering husband.
Given his weekend condition, if Tim McCain had developed Covid in this time window such an outcome would have perhaps been life-threatening.
Still, one explanation for their positive antibody results is that both McCains did develop asymptomatic cases in late March or early April 2020. Again, this scenario is theoretically possible, but, statistically, it would seem to be a microscopic probability.
Lastly, according to my antibody research, people who had asymptomatic cases are far less likely to test positive for antibodies many months later compared to people who experienced more severe cases.
This means it would be a further statistical anomaly that Brandie - who, according to this explanation, had an asymptomatic case of Covid - would still be testing positive for Covid antibodies approximately two years later. (Brandie’s third positive antibody result - almost two years after she was sick - showed that her antibody titer levels were still “high.”)
The fact so many “experts” and science journalists are 100-percent convinced early spread did not happen in America is disturbing to this author. It is also deeply disturbing to me that not one mainstream news organization in America has ever highlighted the cases of Tim and Brandie McCain. This tells me these experts and “news” organizations don’t care about finding the truth about this virus’s origination and subsequent spread, and, indeed, are eager to cover up or ignore evidence that would debunk their own false theories.
The reason I just spent so much space presenting some of the evidence that strongly suggests both McCains had Covid is explained in the text that follows, which has to do with r-naught numbers.
In a nutshell, if the McCains DID have Covid (and, for the reasons outlined above, I think it’s undeniable they did), this virus had almost-certainly spread around much of the world by the time the McCains became sick in December 2019.
Enter the significance of the r-naught number …
In Part I, I wrote that one “r-naught number” from just one micro case study could have huge implications when it comes to any effort to date the “spread” of this virus.
For a definition of the r-naught number, I’ll use the words of Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases as quoted in this highly-recommended article from reliasmedia.com published March 1, 2020:
“R-naught is how many infected people come from a single infected person. Most of the research [on 2019-nCoV] has the r-naught between 1.5 and 3. In general, you want to see an r-naught below 1, and that’s how you get the disease controlled.”
The most conservative r-naught figure for the McCains’ case is 3.
That is, I believe the McCains’ cases by themselves prove early spread happened and that the official narrative must constitute fraud of epic scale.
Tim and Brandie McCain = 2 people infected, confirmed by multiple antibody tests.
The unknown person who infected Tim and Brandie = 1 person.
Also, the people doing the r-naught calculations wouldn’t count the unknown person who infected the other unknown person. In this example, this unknown individual would be the baseline case or a potential “case zero.”
But this unknown person, in the matter of days or weeks, caused the infection of at least three more people, giving us a conservative r-naught number of 3 in this case study.
Still, we actually know - from just two positive antibody test results - that at least four people had to be infected in this particular chain of virus transmission.
As referenced above, I also know from my research that the mayor of Belleville, NJ (Michael Melham) had Covid five weeks before the McCains (and approximately two months before the first “confirmed” case in America).
Melham’s symptoms began on or around November 20, 2019. This knowledge tells me it’s impossible “case zero” in America had anything to do with the cluster of cases in the McCain case study (unless “case zero” in the Melham cluster of infections also travelled to Sylacauga, Alabama when he or she happened to be spreading virus).
The apparent fact this virus was being transmitted from person-to-person in New Jersey as well as thousands of miles away in a small rural town in Alabama suggests “community spread” was occurring and makes any argument that possible early cases were “isolated” highly doubtful.
Other possible cases …
The McCains’ r-naught number would be at least one number higher if I counted their roommate (Ben Calfee) as a “confirmed” case. Ben Calfee was also as “sick as (he’d) ever been in his life” at the same time Tim McCain was as sick as he’d ever been in his life. Unfortunately, Mr. Calfee never received an antibody test. It would be an assumption, but the assumption would be that Ben Calfee probably/likely also had Covid.
It should go without saying that all of this information - all these potential early cases - would be of supreme importance to any public health researcher interested in identifying the real start date of virus spread in America.
As mentioned, the fact no public health virus sleuth even bothered to interview the McCains (or Michael Melham) or perform even a cursory “contact tracing” investigation involving these and other early cases by itself tells me everything I need to know about the credibility of “early spread investigations” in America.
The McCains’ r-naught case study actually includes at least three more possible infected people - the McCains’ two teenage children and Brandie’s boss. However, all three of these “close contacts” later tested negative for Covid antibodies. The fact these antibody tests happened more than four months after they experienced symptoms and the fact the McCains’ children experienced mild Covid symptoms may or may not explain these negative results.
However, from an r-naught number of just 3, I can still deduce that this virus was, in fact, “spreading” from person to person in December 2019 … in the little, rural town of Sylacauga, Alabama.
Location, Location, Location ….
Here, I think geography is very important.
Question: How in the world did this virus end up infecting a cluster of people in Sylacauga, Alabama? Seattle or Los Angeles or New York City - all hubs of international travel … maybe, but Sylacauga, Alabama?
(Here, readers might be interested in a piece of Sylacauga trivia. Sylacauga was actually the hometown of the late actor Jim Nabors, famous for his character Gomer Pyle. I’ve been to Sylacauga, which is not much bigger than fictional Mayberry, NC. If Covid’s “case zero” in America turned out to be in Sylacauga, Alabama, we know what Gomer might have said: “Gah-lee!”)
In my interviews with Tim and Brandie, I did confirm that they had NOT recently travelled to Wuhan, China. I’m also willing to go out on a limb and say it’s quite possible nobody from Wuhan, China has ever visited Sylacauga, Alabama.
Confirmed cases by the numbers and by state and country …
I’m the audacious contrarian who thinks millions of Americans had been infected by the the novel coronavirus by the Ides of March 2020. However, I wouldn’t think this if I also didn’t know that at least 264 other Americans from 16 states and at least one lady from the UK also had contracted Covid (confirmed by later antibody tests) by the same time or even months before the McCains became sick with the signature Covid symptoms.
Here’s the break-down:
26 - People I’ve identified who tested positive for Covid antibodies (see this article from NJ, and this one from Washington, and this one from Florida, and this one from Alabama and this one from Marin County, California, and these from New York, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Nebraska … plus this heretofore-ignored but significant testimonial from a lady in the UK.
106 - People who gave blood to the Red Cross in December 2019 and January 2020 who tested positive for antibodies from the states of California, Washington, Oregon, Massachusetts, Michigan, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Wisconsin and Iowa.
Sub-total: 132 early cases
+ 132 - Approximate number of unknown people who infected the above 132 people.
= 264 - the approximate number of “known” Covid cases I’ve identified in my research.
Note: I should subtract at least five people from this figure as I’ve identified at least five spouses who must have infected other spouses or one of their children. (The apparent fact that “family spread” occurred is in itself evidence the virus was contagious and the virus was clearly being transmitted from one human/spouse to another).
I could also include the 132 unknown people who infected the other 132 unknown people, but, for purposes of this analysis, I won’t count those unknown people.
I’m also not counting the 353 likely “antibody-confirmed” cases that this study in France and the 111 early cases in Italy seem to “confirm.” However, these studies are very important as they suggest the novel coronavirus was spreading in numerous regions of at least two continents by December 2019 (Three continents when we include Asia and China).
Even today nobody knows this figure …
Nor am I counting any of the people who must have tested positive for antibodies in late April or May 2020 (when antibody tests began to be widely administered). These would be people who also had Covid symptoms before the first “official” case in America but who didn’t notify the press of their positive antibody results.
Indeed, one of the great unanswered questions of my “early spread” research is how many possible early cases had actually been reported to state public health agencies. Officials, for reasons yet to be revealed, have never disclosed this information.
I will note that I added eight likely/possible (antibody-confirmed) “early cases” after the Internet news aggregator Citizen Free Press published a story I wrote on this topic and asked readers who thought they had an “early” case of Covid to contact me. (I received 104 replies, but for this analysis I am only counting people who claim to have later received a positive antibody test).
From my Substack metrics, I know that about 20,000 people read this story. So from a one-day sample of 20,000 random CFP readers, I added 8 more “confirmed” cases.
I can only assume that if 10 times as many people had read this story, I might have gotten 80 more likely “confirmed cases.” If 2 million people had read the article, I might have received 80,000 more likely or possible antibody-confirmed early cases.
By logic, each of these early (hypothetical and unreported) Covid cases would have been infected by other people who also had early cases and, by applying r-naught numbers, probably infected other people within their networks of “close contacts.”
This extrapolation/thought exercise also supports my conclusion that millions of Americans must have been infected three to four months later by March 2020.
16 is the most important number ….
But it’s not the 264 figure that really stands out to me; it’s the fact these people lived in at least 16 U.S. states (and at least four other countries - China, France, Italy and the UK).
I’ve always wondered why no virus expert ever looked at a map of the United States and simply placed stars on the states that recorded at least one antibody-confirmed early case. What conclusion would a Harvard epidemiologist make after studying this map?
To be fair, I can’t say known antibody-evidence exists that this virus had spread to EVERY U.S. state, but I can say that almost undeniable evidence exists that people in 16 states had been infected by the last week in December 2019.
Question: Do virus experts or epidemiologists think this extremely contagious virus somehow skipped over the other 34 states?
We don’t know how the experts might answer this question because they don’t talk about these early individual case studies. They certainly haven’t fully investigated any of them.
0 - The number of antibody-positive Americans who had Covid symptoms in the year 2019 who were interviewed by employees of the CDC.
One last number:
2 - The number of confirmed early Covid cases required to debunk a “settled” scientific theory, according to the Scientific Method.
I’ll leave it to readers to decide if I just debunked the Wuhan/December “natural origination” theory with one micro case study from one couple who got sick in one small, rural Alabama town.
One more thing: If ever “confirmed,” the early Covid cases of Tim and Brandie McCain would definitely tell us we should not trust our current public health and virus experts. Which is something to think about when we consider all the other things these alleged authorities assure us are scientific facts.