Far more flu tests were given in 2019-2020
I don’t understand why this quantifiable evidence of possible “early spread” has not received more attention.
In my opinion, not nearly enough attention has been given to the very large numbers of Americans who had Influenza Like Illness (ILI) symptoms in the weeks and months before “official Covid” (allegedly) streaked across America in late March and April 2020 (which would be the Spring months not usually associated with the “cold and flu season.”)
Perhaps the most compelling statistics that supports the hypothesis of “early spread” is an analysis of the number of “flu tests given” in the 2019-2020 flu season compared to the same weeks in prior flu seasons.
As the data below shows, far more Americans were administered flu tests in these weeks than in previous flu seasons. (The data is from the CDC and is compiled from a network of clinics that do “surveillance” reporting for the agency. I used this article to compile most of the numbers used in this analysis).
“Flu Tests Given” - Week 40 Through Week 14 Totals:
2019-20: 1,047,958
2018-19: 782,412
2017-18: 924,205
Two assumptions stirred my interest in this topic:
Assumption 1: If more Americans were “sick,” and thus had flu - or Covid - symptoms, it follows that many would have been inclined to go to the doctor or a healthcare clinic/hospital where, most or many, would have likely been given influenza tests by the doctor who saw them.
Significantly, the number of “flu tests given” can be counted and compared to previous flu seasons (and, indeed, were). That is, this data can be “quantified.”
Assumption 2: It’s entirely possible that an unknown percentage of “sick” people who received a flu test, could, in fact, have had Covid.
Note: It should, again, be highlighted that virtually no American was given a PCR Covid test before mid-March 2020. This means one can’t rule out the possibility some percentage of these patients had Covid.
It’s always struck me as very odd that, apparently, no American public health official ever considered the possibility that the “novel” virus that causes the disease Covid-19 could have been infecting Americans (and people all across the world) weeks and months before the first “confirmed” cases in America. (The first “confirmed” case in America was reported on Jan. 19, 2020 - a man who had recently returned from China).
In a press conference in late May 2020, the CDC said they’d looked, and found no evidence they could “confirm” of “community spread” in America before mid to late February 2020.
In other words, for some inexplicable reason, undeniable evidence that more Americans were going to the doctor and getting flu tests from November 2019 through March 2020 is considered insignificant epidemiological information.
The fact many more Americans were getting sick with Covid symptoms weeks and months before “official Covid” is apparently viewed as a mere “coincidence” (if this information is even mentioned at all, which it almost never is.)
Key points about this data:
Per my research, the CDC expanded the number of healthcare clinics that were a part of its flu surveillance network, but this increase in participating members happened after 2016. This means the three-year-comparisons presented in this document are “apples-to-apples” comparisons.
A massive increase (of more than 200 percent) in “flu tests given” in 2019-2020 can be seen if researchers go back to flu seasons spanning from 2012 to 2016.
(Aside: My research also supports the contrarian hypothesis that the “flu vaccines” don’t work as approximately half the country receives an annual flu shot (70 percent of senior citizens) … and flu cases have apparently not gone down.)
One should also consider that the vast number of people who develop “flu-like symptoms” probably do NOT go to the doctor and get a flu test. These people know from experience that doctors can’t do anything for them and millions of sick Americans no doubt choose to “ride out” their flu or flu-like illnesses.
This means the “flu-tests-given” metric - as well as weekly ILI rates published by the CDC and state health agencies - do NOT come close to capturing every American who is/was sick with flu-like symptoms.
For this analysis, I wasn’t necessarily interested in the percentage of tests that came back “positive” for influenza (depending on the week, this percentage ranged from 10 to 30 percent “positive”). Instead, I was interested in the number of tests administered, which I viewed as an excellent proxy for estimating the number of “sick” people.
It should also be noted that people can have Covid and influenza at the same time, which has been repeatedly confirmed. Indeed, I suspect that patients who tested positive for Covid and Influenza at the same time might have had more severe cases and been much more likely to require hospitalization.
Contemporaneous media and public health reports
support my theory
In performing research on “early spread, I’ve sought out data that would either support or refute my hypothesis.
Volumes of contemporaneous media reports of “flu outbreaks” (before official Covid) as well as weekly ILI Surveillance Reports compiled by every state health agency confirm or support the assertion that the 2019-2020 flu season was perhaps the most severe - and prolonged - of many decades, perhaps of all-time. (For example, ILI rates in the 2019-2020 flu season were above the national baseline for an unprecedented 23 consecutive weeks).
Please see this in-depth article that cites scores of stories and ILI reports that confirm the above.
I have also produced original journalism/analysis that leads me to confidently conclude that more schools and school systems in America closed “due to illness” in the fall and winter months of 2019-2020 than in any other previous flu season.
In summary, if a novel respiratory virus was infecting millions of Americans across the country, one would expect to see the supporting data I have now reported. To me, it is noteworthy that I was NOT able to refute my “early-spread” hypothesis via published “flu or ILI data.”
It’s impossible to know what percentage of “sick” people might have actually had Covid. (My educated guess would be 20 to 30 percent).
Taken in the aggregate, this data reveals that far more Americans were sick - with Covid symptoms - in the weeks and months before public health authorities and “experts” said this virus was being transmitted in America.
Points from my analysis of “flu-tests-given” data
that stand out to me …
- At least 265,546 more flu tests (administered by the surveillance network clinics) were given in 27 weeks of the 2019-2020 flu season than the prior flu season of 2018-2019. This is a one-year increase of 34 percent.
- 123,753 more tests were administered in 2019-2020 than in 2017-2018, often called “the worst flu season in 40 years.” This represents an increase of 13.4 percent.
- Based on the “number of flu tests given,” the “worst flu season of the past 40 years” was NOT the flu season of 2017-2018, but the flu season of 2019-2020.
- More flu tests were given in 2019-2020 than the prior flu season in 26 of the 27 weeks compared. (The Flu Season of 2018-2019 had more flu tests administered in Week 14, the final week of this comparison - probably because fewer people were going to the doctor or hospital after the lockdowns.)
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- Of the 27 weeks compared above, the number of flu tests given in the 2019-2020 flu season was greater than the number given in the 2017-2018 season in 20 weeks. In only seven weeks (Weeks 2 through 8) were more flu tests given in 2017-2018 than the flu season of 2019-2020.
- The difference between 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 numbers was at least 40 percent in 11 weeks. The difference was as high as 111 percent in Week 10 (the last week before the lockdowns).
- In the first 17 weeks of the 2019-2020 flu season (Weeks 40 through 4), 78,174 more flu tests were given in 2019-2020 compared to 2017-2018 (an average of 4,598 more flu tests per week).
- While it’s possible fewer medical practices were a part of the Surveillance Network in 2016, I did tally those numbers for comparison purposes. In Weeks 5 through 14 of 2016, 171,102 flu tests were given (and reported). By comparison, in the same 10-week period of 2020, 385,422 flu tests were given. That is, 214,320 more tests were given in the same two-and-1/2-month time span four years later.
- In the final 10 weeks of the 2019-2020 flu season (for the 10 weeks’ of data shown above), 45,579 more flu tests were given compared to 2017-2018 (an average of 4,458 more flu tests per week).
- On average, 9,835 more flu tests were given each week in these 10 weeks of the 2019-2020 flu season than the previous flu season of 2018-2019.
ILI data jibes with flu-test data …
- In the flu season of 2019-2020, ILI was at least 2.6 percent for 23 consecutive weeks. No other flu season had ILI numbers above that percentage for that long. (21 weeks was the previous “record.”)
- In nine of 13 weeks in 2019-2020, the national ILI percentage was at least 6 percent and peaked at 7.4 percent in Week 12. This means that ILI percentages were far above the norm for at least 13 weeks. In other bad flu seasons (like January 2018), high ILI percentages were sustained for only four to six weeks, which was not the case in the flu season of 2019-2020. Flu was “severe” and “widespread” for five months (November, December, January, February and most of March).
ILI data from a random state - Illinois …
In Illinois, ILI percentages from the flu season of 2017-2018 were higher than 2019-2020 for approximately 4 weeks - Week 52 through Week 3. (Note the graph that compares several flu seasons published by Illinois Department of Public Health.)
The highest ILI percentage of the severe flu season of 2017-2018 was approximately 6.3 percent (in Week 52). The highest ILI percentage in Illinois in 2019-2020 was higher, approximately 7.3 percent (Week 5, the first week of February 2020). ILI was still 7 percent in Week 12 of 2020, which ended March 21st.
As can be observed from this graph, the green line (representing ILI percentages by week for the 2019-2020 flu season) is far higher than the other colored lines representing flu seasons dating back to 2016-2017. The green line representing 2019-2020 weekly ILI percentages is far above the gray bars, which represent the average ILI of the previous four flu seasons.
Conclusion:
By all observable measures and statistics, more Americans were experiencing flu, ILI or Covid symptoms in the weeks and months before Covid was supposed to be spreading in America.
The salient point is that while more people were apparently becoming sick in these 27 weeks, no noticeable spike in all-cause deaths was ever observed. This suggests that if Covid was spreading much earlier than has been claimed by authorities, this virus or bug - whatever caused it - was NOT “deadly.”
“Bill Rice, Jr.’s Newsletter” seeks to mix commentary on a variety of topical subjects with research and investigative journalism that challenges “conventional wisdom.” Reader feedback and critiques are welcome in the Reader Comment section, where all subscribers are free to share their views.
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A growing number of citizen journalists and science dissenters put forth the theory that there was never a novel respiratory virus. That is, the entire "pandemic" was staged, primarily through fraudulent use of the dubious PCR diagnostic tests. For my part, I do NOT dismiss this possibility, which could be true.
However, I simply note that "something" was making more Americans sick in the months before "official Covid" ... and my hypothesis is that a certain percentage of these "sick" people very possibly could have had Covid - It just didn't kill them. That is, there very possibly was a novel new virus circulating, it just wasn't "deadly." I also note that most cold and flu and corona viruses are NOT "deadly" to 99.9 percent of the population .... so a contagious, non-deadly virus wouldn't be that great of a surprise or an anomaly.
And it IS an odd "coincidence" that so many more people got "sick" with signature "Covid symptoms" just a few weeks or months before the birth of Covid "spread" was announced.
Because it's for our own good! You can't be asking these types of questions, Bill. Get back in line!
Back in reality, it's because it's all a scam. I am of the side that we should all be continuing to call this a scamdemic. There was no pandemic. It was everything but. Denis Rancourt has already nailed this with his all cause mortality studies, particularly his most recent one: https://correlation-canada.org/covid-excess-mortality-125-countries/