The ‘Unknown Unknowables’ Bother Me

Our leaders & rabid censors get a pass on the happy events they stole and the misery they could have prevented.

Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld popularized the expressions “known knowables” and “unknown unknowables” in his highly-watched press conferences during the Gulf War. These terms stayed with me and I use them all the time in my thinking and writing.

In my Covid analysis, I often use the “known knowable” and “unknown unknowable” mental templates. I’m particularly struck by how often I think about things that are unknown unknowables.

These are events/possibilities we simply can’t know - because something that could have happened didn’t happen.

One “unknown unknowable” that disturbs me greatly involves social media companies and their enthusiasm for censorship.

I can’t help but wonder what would have happened if Covid contrarians like myself could have posted our thoughts at Facebook.

As you might have noticed, I can go to town debunking Covid myths.

As a Substack author, I know that some points I’ve made resonate with large numbers of my fellow citizens. 

I’ve written stories that were read by more than 100,000 people. This makes me think some Covid essays I might have posted on Facebook could have gone viral or semi-viral. 

My words and thoughts might have influenced tens of thousands - even hundreds of thousands - of people.

Maybe my arguments would have been persuasive enough to save a few lives - or perhaps prevent someone from experiencing a debilitating medical condition.

Or maybe my posts would have shown a few more people it’s okay to question authority. If nothing else, my writing could have shown people other skeptics exist in the world.

“Whew. What a relief. I’m not the only one. This guy thinks like I do and is not afraid to say what he really believes.”

This might qualify as a redeeming accomplishment my life made possible.

But these examples are conjecture. 

The truth of the matter is I don’t know if my posts would have made a positive difference in anyone’s life. 

The reason I don’t know this is Facebook’s “content moderators,” algorithms, artificial intelligence and “misinformation” policies wouldn’t allow me to make such posts.

Or: If I did make such posts, my essays might be seen by 1/2 of 1 percent of my “followers” … and never be shared and thus “go viral.”

So Bill Rice, Jr.’s contributions to the “Covid conversation” via Facebook is definitely an “unknown unknowable.” 

Or, I guess I could say it’s a “known knowable” I didn’t influence my 1,500 Facebook followers on Covid issues.

A billion users not influenced by people like me …

We can multiply my censored, de-boosted posts by however many people think like me.

From what I’ve read, world-wide at least one billion people use Facebook.

My guess would be at least 10 percent of Facebook users  - 100 million global citizens - think like me.

So if these 100 million citizens wanted to post thoughts like mine … they couldn’t do it.

If we all could have done this, our collective effort might have changed a few false narratives that were quickly set in stone. 

But this is yet another “unknown unknowable.” We really don’t know. We were never given this chance.

The Censorship Industrial Complex fears unknown unknowables

Another “known knowable” is that a massive infrastructure of organizations emerged in recent years to battle the scourge of “disinformation” and “misinformation.”

This system of coordinated, inter-connected fear-mongers has been dubbed the Censorship Industrial Complex (CIC).

A key CIC organization is Stanford University’s “Virality Project.”

The goal of this “project” is to keep unauthorized speech from “going viral.” (So if Big Brother wasn't coming up with these names, it would be called “The Anti-Viral Project.”)

It’s still hard to grasp that a platoon of academics go to work every day with one simple goal: To keep speech produced by people like myself from “going viral.”

And we know these people are good at what they do because they did keep my content from going viral on Facebook and Twitter. 

Could my speech have saved lives or inspired other citizens to stand up to encroaching tyranny like Patrick Henry and Thomas Paine once did? I’ll never know. 

All I know is a cadre of academics who’re certain they’re more virtuous than I am and who have a radically-different view of the First Amendment than I do made sure I wouldn’t have the chance to influence any “national debates” on social media platforms.

Other Unknown Unknowables …

I’ve thought about other unknown unknowables.

For example, we’ll never know how many high school seniors, who were not allowed to play sports their senior years, might have earned college scholarships by impressing college recruiters in their last season.

Some athletes are “can’t-miss” prospects by 8th grade. However, plenty of athletes develop later as their bodies mature and they gain confidence in their skills. 

There must be thousands of athletes who would have blossomed their senior year - earned a college scholarship and might be playing the sport they love right now in college … if they’d been “allowed” to play their senior season.

But this is an “unknown unknowable.”

Or what about the much-larger number of athletes who lack the talent to play in college but still wanted to play a sport they love their senior seasons.

“Touchdowns never scored;” “game-winning jump shots never made” or “happy bus trips back to the gym after a big victory” are all unknown unknowables. 

A known knowable is that millions of teenagers did not get to experience thrills they’d have savored the rest of their lives.

We’ll never know how many musicians, perhaps on the cusp on “hitting it big,” who suddenly couldn’t play gigs, later broke up and didn’t get this life-changing career break.

We’ll never know how many couples did not meet, get married, start a family and live happily ever after …. because they were stuck inside their homes or apartments for 12 months.

Whatever number of maddening known knowables Covid inflicted on the world, the number of equally-heart-breaking unknown unknowables is greater.

I’m sure I would have made points like these on Facebook … if I’d been allowed to.

All the happy events that didn’t happen; all the bad outcomes that might have been prevented … if genuine free speech still existed … are all unknown unknowables.  

I wonder if our alleged leaders and rabid censors - all of whom are dangerous misinformation spreaders - care about any of this.

This might also be an unknown unknowable, but my bet is they don’t.