The Great Navy Cover-Up?

Logic tells me the coronavirus would have spread through every ship in the U.S Navy months before the lockdowns.

QUESTIONS: Would a contagious respiratory virus spread among sailors sleeping in quarters like this? Why did the virus wait until mid-March 2020 to suddenly start spreading on ships?

Circling back to take-aways from the USS Roosevelt antibody study, I think today’s thought exercise is potentially very significant.

In today’s article, I argue the novel coronavirus must have been spreading in perhaps EVERY naval ship in the U.S. fleet several months before officials have acknowledged or admitted.

Furthermore, I find it hard to believe that at least some CDC and Navy officials didn’t quickly reach the same conclusion, a possibility that has very-likely been concealed from the public.

I believe antibody testing of sailors who served on the approximately 100 ships that would have been at sea in the months before “official” Covid would support or confirm my hypothesis that many millions of Americans had already been infected by the date of the lockdowns in mid-March 2020.

However, with the exception of just three studies of Naval crew members such antibody testing was never done … although this could have easily been done and certainly should have been done … at least if officials were genuinely interested in dating and “confirming” the earliest known cases of Covid.

As I pointed out in my first article on the outbreak on the USS Roosevelt, three “Covid outbreaks” happened on Naval vessels, outbreaks which led to later antibody testing of crew members. As I think these percentages are extremely important, I’ll republish the key figures:

Per antibody and PCR test results, the following percentages of sailors had already been infected by the novel coronavirus by approximately late April 2020:

- The USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier (4,865 crew members): 62 percent of crew members infected (with 60 percent testing positive for antibodies).

- The Charles de Gaulle French aircraft carrier (1,733 crew members): 74.75 percent of the crew labelled as having “confirmed” or “suspected” prior infections (with 60 percent of the crew testing positive for antibodies).

- The USS Kidd destroyer (333 crew members): Approximately 41 percent “confirmed” or “probable” infections with 31.2 percent of those who were tested for antibodies producing a positive result. 

Comments:

The percentage of crew members who had diagnostic evidence of “prior infection” was not 10 or 19 percent of the entire crew; the figures ranged from 41 to 75 percent.

These results seem to “confirm” my hypothesis that a contagious respiratory virus would infect the vast majority of people living in such a unique “congregate” setting as a Naval ship.

Deductive reasoning suggests that if “early spread” was happening, it would have been most conspicuous (and probably the easiest to confirm) on Naval vessels. 

Two key assumptions inform my early spread hypothesis

The first assumption is that the novel coronavirus was/is indeed very contagious (but, significantly, not lethal). The virus is largely spread through the air via microscopic particulates that are “aerosolized.”

The longer a person spends in “close contact” with another person who is “shedding virus,” the more likely a person who breathes this same air will be infected. Also, significantly, virus transmission almost always happens indoors - where Navy sailors spend almost all of their time.

My second assumption, informed by copious research, is that some unknown percentage of the U.S. population had been infected by this virus by November 2019 or perhaps October (maybe even earlier). If true, this assumption pretty much tells us what would’ve been happening on naval ships.

The basic or key truths about virus spread …

I recently discovered two articles (here and here) where the University of Minnesota’s Dr. Michael Osterholm, “an internationally known expert in infectious disease epidemiology,” expounded on these key points.

In a May 29, 2020 interview, Dr. Osterholm repeatedly emphasized points relevant to today’s article. Although he didn’t discuss virus spread on a Naval ship, his points illustrate that Navy ships would constitute the worst possible environment for virus transmission.

“… But (virus) exposure as a dose is a combination of time and amount.”

“… Covid-19 doesn't magically jump between two people - it's time and dose. For example, if you're riding in a car with someone who's infected, you may become infected yourself by just breathing their air within 10 minutes …” 

“… A virus like this is transmitted by the respiratory route. I call it the leaky bucket virus because if there’s one little crack somewhere, it will get out and will infect people. Why is that important? Because we know that it will continue to infect people into 60 to 70% of the population over time …”

“ … the bottom-line message … is that this virus is going to keep transmitting to others until it hits that 60 or 70% level …”

“…  it cannot be overstated, that the most important thing someone can do to protect themselves … is to maintain as much distance as possible from other people who you are not living with.”

“… It’s time and dose, so you’re not going to get infected by passing somebody on (a walking) path.”

What’s it like to live and work on a Navy ship …

I’ve never served on a naval vessel, but I’ve read articles that describe living conditions where “distancing” is simply impossible. 

On Navy ships, hallways are extremely narrow; ceilings are just 7 feet high; sailors climb up and down ladders to move between decks; sailors eat together in close quarters and sleep in bunks stacked three high. Crew members share small heads (bathrooms) and congregate in social areas that allow virtually no space for “social distancing.” The ship’s work stations are cramped with sailors working in tight proximity with crew members for long shifts. Sailors gather for officer briefings on a routine basis.

That is, the working and living environments are extremely “dense.” Also, as Dr. Osterholm notes, any respiratory exhalation that produces aerosols can linger inside rooms for hours.

In short, a contagious virus - spread by aerosols in the air - would seemingly infect virtually everyone on a Naval ship (or submarine) given enough time. 

If you were living and working on a Naval vessel for, say, two months, it would be impossible for crew members to avoid hundreds of prolonged “close contacts” with those who might be infected and shedding virus.

Why weren’t 100 percent of sailors antibody-positive?

In my research, I found a quote attributed to the ship’s then commander, Capt. Brett Crozier. By late March 2020, as the number of positive PCR tests of Roosevelt crew members rapidly grew, Capt. Crozier and the ship’s top medical officers reached the conclusion that “100 percent” of the ship’s crew would soon be infected by this virus.

Indeed, when pondering the aforementioned points, one question occurs to me: Why didn’t, say, 90 percent or even 100 percent of sailors on this ship test positive for antibodies?

As I will develop in a future article, perhaps the main reason that “only” 60 percent of Roosevelt crew members tested positive for antibodies in late April 2020 is that detectable levels of antibodies rapidly fade or wane in many (or some) percentage of previously infected people, according to multiple studies. (See my post in Reader comments for supporting links and excerpts).

The fact 40 percent of crew members who participated in the Roosevelt antibody sample tested negative for antibodies could be because many of the “antibody-negative” cohort had been infected with this virus three, four, five or even six months before they gave blood for the antibody test (in late April 2020) and these antibodies might have already faded to undetectable levels. (On the USS Kidd antibody tests were administered in late April and May).

Other infected crew members might not have had time to develop antibodies yet.

Also, according to several studies, individuals who experienced asymptomatic or mild cases of Covid are much more likely to produce antibodies that “rapidly wane.” (Per numerous studies, asymptomatic “case” percentages are at least 20 percent, meaning that large numbers of previous cases would not be expected have detectable levels of antibodies two, three, four or five months after their presumed cases).

Which brings me to my second assumption …

Wouldn’t the same type of outbreaks that happened on these three ships have happened on all or most ships of any nation that has a Navy? And wouldn’t these “outbreaks” have been occurring well before mid-March 2020?

Here we need to consider what the real (or more believable) virus “prevalence” percentages might have been in America in, say, late November 2019. 

Extrapolating from the Red Cross antibody study, at least 2.04 percent of blood donors in California, Washington and Oregon already had Covid antibodies by some point in November 2019. 

Based on later positive antibody results, I’ve identified hundreds of other people in at least 16 U.S. states and five countries (including China) who had been exposed to this virus in October, November and December 2019. 

The fact I’ve identified so many possible early cases in so many U.S. states provides compelling evidence of “early spread” …. as the virus had clearly and literally “spread” - person-to-infected-person - across the country. (Another possibility would be the virus just dropped out of the sky in some cities, but somehow didn’t affect anyone in the vast majority of U.S. cities and states).

If one assumes 2 percent of the population had been exposed to this virus by the end of November 2019, how many Americans would have been exposed a month later by the end of December? What would the national prevalence percentage be by the end of January?

My assumption is the “prevalence” percentage wouldn’t have stayed at 2 percent; These percentages would have grown … since, after all, this is a very contagious virus.

I recently wrote two long stories on the huge increase in “school closings” in America in the winter of 2019-2020. From this research project, I know that most of the outbreaks that happened at thousands of schools in the country occurred in late January, but some schools closed due to illness weeks and months earlier. 

I also have documented that ILI cases in America were “severe” and “widespread” in almost all U.S. states in the “cold and flu” season of 2019-2020.

Some schools reported staff and student body absentee figures of 40 percent. Most schools which shut down had at least 20 percent absences due to illness.

Schools are another “congregate” setting where one would expect a contagious virus to rapidly infect large numbers of students and staff who were breathing in “aerosolized” virus pathogens.

These widely-dispersed school closings/outbreaks didn’t just affect students and teachers; they infected people throughout these communities. 

My conjecture is widespread national ILI outbreaks would have also affected at least some sailors, sailors who would soon or later board myriad ships for extended deployments at sea.

If just 2 percent of the population was infected by the end of November 2019, this 2 percent would have almost certainly included at least 2 percent of people serving on ships in the Navy.

If an average U.S. Naval ship has 1000 crew members, this might mean 20 of these crew members were infected.

Which is the math that gives me my “explosive” take-away. If just 20 (or even 10) infected crew members boarded a ship in early December 2019 and that ship was then at sea for the next 30 to 60 days … at the end of those 60 days, I think at least half of crew members who didn’t already have natural immunity would have been infected. 

Again, Dr. Osterholm tells us that virus spread is a simple function of “time,” duration of exposures and the dose of virus particles inhaled.

(Where I differ with Dr. Osterholm is he thinks only “5 percent” of the country had been infected with the novel coronavirus by late May 2020. I think at least 5 percent of Americans had been infected five months earlier.)

To hopefully pull all this information together … 

I don’t know what virus “prevalence” was in America in November or December 2019 or January 2020. My guess is that some communities and states would have higher percentages of infected people than other communities. It’s possible (although I think doubtful) that these percentages were low - maybe 2 percent or maybe later 4 percent or 8 percent.

But even if one thinks virus prevalence might have been only two percent in a given town or state in late November 2019, this would NOT be the prevalence percentage on a given Naval ship.

I also know that the Navy and military keeps copious medical records of every active duty member and every trip to sick bay.

My strong suspicion is these medical records show spikes in sailors experiencing Influenza Like Illness symptoms probably beginning in November 2019 and definitely in early and late January and early February (corresponding with school closings).

It would be very strange if flu-like illnesses that ran through thousands of schools in dozens of states didn’t also run through many ships (and various military bases and barracks as well).

Conclusion/Summary …

In effect, the U.S. Navy constitutes the perfect laboratory to study or observe virus spread. 

Tens of thousands of sailors served on more than 100 different “laboratories” where virus spread could have occurred. 

If more sailors than normal were experiencing ILI symptoms in the winter of 2019-2020, the Navy knows this … but the public does not.

We know Covid antibody results from three Naval vessels produced high percentages of positive results, seemingly confirming “prior infection.”

We also know that antibody studies were NOT done on crews of at least 97 other U.S. Naval vessels. This would be yet another example of my maxim that officials will NOT investigate that which they don’t want to “confirm.”

I’ve previously presented antibody evidence that many Americans in numerous states were infected with this virus by December 2019. 

If any infected person boarded a Naval ship, it’s impossible this virus would not have spread widely throughout the entire crew. 

Another conclusion is that large percentages of sailors already had natural immunity by mid-March 2020. This would be another reason 100 percent of these crews didn’t become infected during these outbreaks.

I also note that if large percentages of Navy crew members were infected before March 2020, at least some of these contagious sailors would have been spreading virus every time they visited, say, a bar at any of the cities where sailors were given liberty during port-of-call stops. That is, any contagious virus that was spreading on Navy ships wouldn’t have stayed on Navy ships.

More than any other setting or work environment, evidence of “early spread” would (or could) be found on U.S. Naval ships.

However, according to trusted public health officials and the leaders of our military, this extremely-contagious virus was NOT spreading before March 2020 on Naval ships … or anywhere else in the country.

For those who believe the above statement, I’ve got an aircraft carrier I’d like to sell you.