Reich (and now Krugman) are blowing away Substack growth records
If Substack was a beachhead for dissident authors, the effort of our Marines to hold this beach might be floundering.
UPDATE: 2-12-25: Robert Reich now has 718,900+ subscribers - an increase of 200,000 subscribers in 36 days.
In today's essay, I again try to explain why certain Substack trends strike me as ominous or worrisome.
For example, I continue to monitor the spectacular subscriber growth of Robert Reich’s newsletter and can report today that …
… The growth of Reich’s Substack is becoming even more spectacular.
***
In a period of 16 days, Reich’s newsletter added approximately 64,000 subscribers.
When I first started monitoring Reich’s subscriber numbers on January 7th, he had 517,900+ subscribers.
On January 23rd, he had more than 581,900 subscribers, a growth rate of 12.36 percent (+ 64,000 subscribers).
In a span of 16 days, Reich averaged adding 4,000 subscribers every day.
Today’s update: Reich now has 606,900+ subscribers, meaning he’s added 89,000 subscribers in 19 days (an average of 4,684 subscribers per day).
***
For context, in 12 days, Reich added more subscribers (48,000) than Dr. Meryl Nass has added in the three years she’s been producing a Substack newsletter.
Note: Dr. Nass has 47,900 total subscribers, a figure that was unchanged in the same 16-day period.
While Reich, a liberal anti-MAGA writer, is rapidly adding subscribers, the best-known “Covid Contrarian” or “freedom” writers have experienced little if any subscriber growth in the same half-month time period.
For example, Dr. Robert Malone, Steve Kirsch and Alex Berenson are three of the top five “Covid Contrarians” I identified in a recent Top 137 ranking (now updated to “The Top 140.”)
In the same 16-day period, Berenson’s subscription numbers stayed exactly the same at 243,900 subscribers.
Kirsch added 1,000 subscribers, growing his Substack from 257,900 to 258,900 - an increase of 0.39 percent.
Dr. Malone’s Substack grew by 2,000 subscribers from 346,900 to 348,900 - an increase of 0.58 percent.
I also looked at the recent subscriber numbers of Jeff Childers’ popular “Coffee and Covid” newsletter, which had grown by 1,000 subscribers in the same 16-day period (from 162,900 to 163,900 - an increase of 0.61 percent).
Paul Krugman is moving up the charts with a bullet …
We should add Paul Krugman to the growing roster of liberal, “Anti-MAGA” authors who are suddenly ascendant on Substack.
(Note: I discovered Krugman is now a Substack colleague of mine from the chart I re-published at the top of this article. This research was produced by “Contrarian” newsletter author Yuri Bezmenov, who is doing the same type of analysis as myself. I highly recommend this article by Mr. Bezmenoz.)
Krugman, the world-famous economics columnist who recently retired (?) from writing his NY Times’ column, is another author who’s moved his word-smithing to Substack - and is kicking ass, taking names … and adding to his net worth.
Krugman started (or re-started) a Substack newsletter six weeks ago on December 11th.
As of today’s date (Jan. 26), Krugman already has 130,000 subscribers.
Krugman’s total subscriber numbers are also increasing at a rapid rate as they’ve grown by 11,000 in just the past three days.
Wrote Krugman in a January 23rd dispatch:
“I passed 119K subscribers as I was drafting this note, and the word is still getting out.”
My observation: The word is definitely (ah, perhaps) “getting out” as Krugman is today at approximately 130,00 subscribers, meaning he’s apparently now adding 3,600 subscribers per day.
For context, in the last 22 months (667 days) of my Substack, I added 3,600 subscribers, a figure Krugman reaches in one day.
Krugman is also now accepting paid subscriptions, a decision he explains/justifies in the same article (emphasis added):
“I’m really, really not doing this job for the money, but as an economist I’m supposed to believe in incentives, and some monetary payment might make it easier to explain why I’m still slaving away on the computer when I should have started cooking dinner … (Hmm: maybe an occasional cooking video for paid subscribers?).”
From his orange checkmark, I was able to ascertain that Krugman has had “thousands of paid” subscribers for at least several weeks.
If he has a paid ratio of at least 4 percent, at least 5,200 of his 130,000 subscribers are paid.
Since his annual subscription rate is $70/year, Krugman would already be grossing at least $364,000 from his new Substack writing gig.
At this rate of subscriber growth, in two more months, Krugman will be grossing approximately $605,000.
Of course, Krugman’s instant Substack All-Star status is, perhaps, understandable as he moved his writing to Substack when he already had a sterling brand as an important liberal voice - compliments of his extended residency at the NY Times.
Our ‘beachhead’ is NOT secure …
One reason I keep publishing analysis pieces of Substack metrics is to make the point that Substack - once the most-important “beachhead” for “contrarian” writers - is increasingly becoming saturated with newsletters written by content producers who’ve never challenged an authorized narrative in their lives.
Per my analysis, Substack’s roster of “Covid Contrarian” or “freedom” writers is still massively larger than the Statist or Status-Quo-protecting authors.
However, almost all of the authors who are benefitting from eye-popping subscription growth seem to be writers determined to take this beachhead away from the Contrarians’ army of writers.
*** (As I often note, I appreciate the fact Substack allows me to post articles like this … and also includes one button that helps me reach readers who are not current subscribers to my newsletter) ***
I continue to opine/speculate that “something” (probably significant) changed on Substack in the last year or so.
This “something” can now be quantified by noting the stagnant or much-slower subscriber growth of established “contrarian” writers compared to the rapid and ever-growing subscription growth of writers who constantly attack our team of “kooks” and “conspiracy theorists” as “disinformation” spreaders.
My hunch continues to be the founders and key executives at Substack probably don’t really like or endorse the views of “dissident” authors who put this platform on the media map.
Or, perhaps, Substack’s leaders want to highlight and promote prominent protectors of the Status Quo to provide “more balance” on a platform created to help “independent” writers (perhaps to keep a certain 900-pound Censorship Gorilla off their backs).
I simply note that Substack authors like Robert Reich, Dan Rather, Your Local Epidemiologist, Bill Kristol and Paul Krugman do not represent the views of alternative or (genuinely) independent writers.
Instead, these writers promulgate the views of the captured mainstream/corporate/legacy media.
To be fair, if Substack is making a concerted effort to “go after” - or grow or better tap into - the world’s liberal market, this strategy would be understandable and make business sense.
However, if suspect algorithms are being utilized to expand or inflate the subscription numbers of the globalist, “comply-or-else” authors …
… and if these algorithms are somehow suppressing the growth and reach of dissident authors, this would qualify as an ominous development for those of us who depend on Substack to disseminate our content, messages that have clearly been censored or suppressed for at least five years on myriad content (“speech”) platforms.
To further develop the analogy that a war for hearts and minds is being waged, it would be encouraging if “freedom fighters” on Substack were experiencing notable growth in readership and subscribers … but this clearly isn’t happening.
A final thought about “biting the hand that feeds me”
After I published one of my earlier Substack metric pieces, one of my subscribers cautioned me it might not be the brightest move to “bite the hand that feeds you.”
That is, I keep publishing articles expressing concerns about the direction of Substack even though Substack has allowed me to grow my own brand and make at least some money from my writing.
My subscriber makes a good point and I confess that publishing articles like this always makes me a little nervous.
My rejoinder, however, is that the income I’m making from Substack is a pittance compared to salaries and benefits corporate (subsidized) journalists make.
I also know for a fact that my own subscriber metrics changed (dramatically and for the worse) about 10 to 14 months ago.
From studying my own subscription trends, I’ve concluded I could produce the most earth-shattering journalism and boldest commentary on Substack and still have no hope of reaching even 10,000 total subscribers.
(It took me 28 months to reach 7,000 total subscribers, but it took me 22 months to equal the 3,500 subscribers I added in the first six months of my newsletter.)
While I think half the country or world thinks somewhat like I do, I have the strong sense the reach of “Covid contrarian” or “freedom” writers isn’t going to expand significantly.
For years, I was convinced Substack offers the best hope to debunk legions of false and misery-producing narratives promulgated by the Establishment.
I still believe Substack’s Contrarian authors are moving the needle and still have the potential to play a vital role in this imperative debunking project.
However, my confidence contrarian Substack authors will produce a sea change in public sentiment is beginning to wane.
***
Note: I’ll add a few other Bonus Thoughts in today’s Reader Comments. I’ll also cite a handful of examples of contrarian authors who’ve experienced noteworthy subscriber growth … although nothing close to the levels of the new Liberal All-star writers.
(I greatly appreciate the 285 paid subscribers who are supporting my writing and the 7,093 total subscribers I now have.)
In today's article, I made the point that Paul Krugman's huge early influx of subscribers is, perhaps, understandable as he came over to Substack with a large following of nut-cases - who no doubt wanted to support him in his new venture.
So to do an apples-to-apples comparison of Krugman's huge subscriber numbers we'd have to find a "conservative" writer who is just as well-known and had as many readers as Krugman ... and then see if this person also added 130,000 subscribers in six weeks.
The only comparison I can think of is Ann Coutler, who was (once) one of the most-famous conservative writers in the world. Ms. Coulter started a Substack many months ago. Alas, Substack doesn't publish her subscriber numbers. She does have a big orange check that signifies she has "thousands" of paid subscribers. However, I doubt she has 130,000 total subscribers. Or, if she does, it took her much longer than Krugman to reach this figure.
It seems to me that Coulter fell off the face of the earth when she got sideways with the Trump supporters a couple of years ago (because she argued Trump wasn't making enough progress building his wall). For example, she used to be a regular on Fox and all kinds of alternative media news outlets and then, all of a sudden, you don't see her anywhere.
Coulter hasn't gone "all in" on being a "Covid Contrarian" although a couple of weeks ago she did pen one of her signature acerbic and biting pieces that ridiculed the Fauci's of the world.
If she keeps doing this, she might rally on Substack.
A few or “our team” of writers seem to have experienced encouraging growth in the 1/2 month or so I’ve been monitoring subscriber numbers.
For example, a A Midwestern Doctor had 162,900+ subscribers when I did my analysis for my “Top 140 Contrarians” list/ranking.
When I looked a AMD’s numbers a day or two ago, they’d grown to 170,900 (+ 8,000 = + 4.91 percent growth).
I’ve noted that Debbie Lerman got a boost of about 600 subscribers with two widely-shared articles, which is a big percentage gain from her prior number of 2.5K+.
Jenna McCarthy has been on a roll lately and has added at least 400 subscribers from my first number (6.5K+ - which is now 6.9K+)
Update: I just saw that Rebekah Barnett, who writes "Dystopian Down Under," has added 1,000 subscribers in the past 2 1/2 or so weeks; Rebekah now has 12,900+ subscribers - up from 11,900. That's a significant spike.
I’ve experienced an increase in total subscribers of approximately 130 in the last three weeks, a boost largely explained by the number of shares my “Contrarian” list generated for me.
However, my subscriber numbers are, again, leveling off in the past week or so. My paid subscribers continue to plummet. Where I had 304 paid subscribers a couple of months ago, I now have 285.
In fact, my “paid ratio” is now 4.02 percent and, I guess, will soon dip below 4 percent. This key ratio was once close to 5 percent.
I think almost all “Contrarian” Substack authors are experiencing notable declines in their “paid” ratios.
“Real inflation” might best explain the declines in these paid ratios. But, as this article shows, the liberal population of America seems to now be flocking to, or discovering, Substack at a much greater clip than Americans who are seeking alternative journalism