Michigan data is telling us something important

Deaths in elderly were already increasing, but the spikes in April 2020 were mind-blowing.

In Michigan, excess death was 0.0 percent on March 14, 2020. On April 4, it was 61 percent. A week later it was 76.1 percent. What changed? Did the virus suddenly become more lethal or contagious?

Today, I offer more analysis from my research project showing that deaths in the age 75 to 84 demo in Michigan apparently spiked in the months prior to the official arrival of Covid.

The key take-away is that if early Covid deaths were happening, some officials should have picked up on this and at least investigated this possibility. The apparent fact this never happened suggests that public health officials are not interested in investigating that which they’d prefer not to confirm.

Per my hypothesis, the reason such investigations have not occurred is that confirmed evidence of early spread would be kryptonite to virtually all of the key authorized Covid narratives, proving that officials (and the MSM) should NOT be trusted.

Today’s analysis also looks at WHEN the spikes in all-cause deaths exploded (the fourth week in March and then April) and quantifies the eye-opening spikes. For Part 1, read here.

Note: Michigan did not record its first “confirmed” Covid death until Week 12 (ending March 21st). Lockdowns in Michigan began March 13-15.

To me, the above are not trivial mortality increases, although I assume this “spike” or increase in deaths from the 5-year-norm did not generate any headlines.

* In Michigan, the number of deaths in the 75 to 84 age cohort increased by an average of 8.9 percent over the norm from the previous five years during the first 12 weeks of 2020. 

* Large increases from the 5-year average/norm were seen as early as Weeks 2 (12.2-percent increase), Week 4 (9.9-percent increase) and Week 5 (11.4-percent increase). These increases were sustained throughout this 12-week period (as opposed to a 3 or 4-week “spike” seen in a bad or particularly deadly flu season). 

• According to the CDC, no COVID-19 deaths had occurred in America until late February. However, at least in Michigan, mortality figures in the 75-to-84 age group show a definite spike in “excessive” death over the norm by Week 2. 

• Question: Could at least some of these “excessive” deaths have been caused by COVID-19?

In the first 12 weeks of 2020, Michigan experienced nine weeks where the the weekly death total of citizens age 75 to 84 equalled or exceeded 490. At least 490 deaths occurred in 75 percent of the 12 weeks examined. 

In the 60 weeks from the same time span going back to 2015, only 4 weeks reached at least 490 deaths (most in the flu season of 2018).  Only 6.6 percent of the 60 weeks examined reached this 490-death threshold.

More Notes/Findings ….

From other data sources, deaths for “all ages” in Michigan were up just 1 percent (101 percent of expected) in “Week 2” (ending Jan. 11th). However, deaths in the 75 to 84 age cohort increased by 12.2 percent compared to the previous five-year average for the same week.

In Week 7 (ends Feb. 15th), deaths by all causes for the entire state, all ages, were 103 percent of the norm. However, deaths in the 75 to 84 age cohort were up by 15.1 percent from the previous 5-year average. 

(It’s perhaps worth noting that the week ending Feb. 15 produced a 103-percent figure for excess deaths of all ages as this might suggest a surge/spike in infections occurring at the end of January, which is what I found in my analysis of school closings throughout the country.)

As of Week 11 (ends March 14th), deaths from all causes for Michigan were just 99 percent of the norm or “expected” percentage. However, in the 75 to 84 age demo, deaths in Michigan were up by 16.5 percent from the previous 5-year average. This was the last week with zero deaths attributed to Covid.

Per my research, the “lag” between infections and a death from or with Covid is 21 to 25 days on average.

From the above data, we can see an obvious spike in deaths in the recording period Week 2. Deaths were up 12.2 percent compared to the five-year average and 12.7 percent from the prior year.

These deaths occurred between January 5-11. If anyone died from Covid, these decedents would have likely been infected by mid-December 2019, perhaps earlier. If any were “Covid deaths,” these Michigan residents were infected at approximately the same time as the “Wuhan outbreak” in mid to late December.

Here, I posit that just one “confirmed” Covid death in the year 2019 would prove the “settled” date of virus-origins and the commencement of virus spread should be debunked and proven to be false. In my opinion, this explains why just one early death from Covid can NOT be “confirmed.”

The Terrible Flu Season of 2017-2018 …

2017-2018 is said to have been one of the worst flu seasons in memory and peaked over several weeks in January 2018. The fact more elderly died in Michigan in January and February 2020 than in the same two months in 2018 is not what one would have expected.

In the first 8 weeks of 2018, 3,807 Michigan residents age 75 to 84 died (an average of 476 deaths per week). In the first 8 weeks of 2020, 3,921 Michigan residents age 75 to 84 died (an average of 490 deaths/week - 16 more deaths/week.)

The prior flu season (which include deaths from the same time period in 2019) is also said to be one of the worst in decades. Even including mortality data from two very bad prior “flu seasons,” 2020 produced more all-cause deaths.

Data seems to be consistent in many other states

From this CDC website, I was able to access “excess” mortality charts for all 50 states by age categories. The graphs are informative as “all-cause deaths” from 2015 through 2020 are presented by week of recorded deaths.

The 2020 data is shown in red, while the graphs for the other five years are in gray or black. This allowed me to easily see if the mortality figures in red (2020) were, in most states, above the lines depicting deaths from the other five years. 

I think readers who click on different states and look at the age categories of “75 to 84” and also “65 to 74” might agree with me that deaths among the elderly were higher in the first 12 weeks of 2020 among these elderly age cohorts. Not always, but usually, the red line representing “pre-Covid” deaths in 2020 is above the other years.

The most-common exception is the graph for the first few weeks of 2018, which corresponds to the severe flu season of January 2018. 

States that that seem to confirm my hypothesis include West Virginia, Wyoming, Mississippi, Georgia, Washington, Texas, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, Virginia, California (65-74) and Arkansas among other states. 

This correlation is not uniform among all states, but a cursory sampling of states does seem to show more deaths were occurring in the elderly in the first 12 weeks of 2020 than in the previous five years.

Per CDC, 2019-2020 flu season was the least deadly in eight years

One explanation for this apparent increase in deaths in the first 12 weeks of 2020 would be that the “flu season” of 2020 was more deadly than previous flu seasons. 

However, this interpretation would not jibe with CDC flu burden statistics, which say the flu season of 2019-2020 actually produced fewer ILI deaths than any flu season from the prior 10 years except for the flu season of 2011-2012.

According to current CDC estimates of ILI deaths, only 25,000 Americans died from ILI in the flu season of 2019-2020. Previous estimates of ILI deaths had been as low as 20,000. For context, the flu season of 2017-2018 caused an estimated 52,000 deaths, a number that, for more than a year, was estimated at 80,000 deaths.

(Massive and belated revisions in “flu deaths” will be featured in a future story. Indeed, I wonder if one day, with one computer stroke, the CDC might cut the number of “Covid deaths” by 35 percent like it did with the flu deaths of 2017-2018). 

Typically, after one or two bad flu seasons, deaths of older Americans decrease the next year as death numbers “revert to the mean.” 

The thought is that previous bad ILI epidemics claim the lives of many of the most vulnerable (elderly) population and those who did not die are healthier and more likely to survive another ILI outbreak. If this logic has merit, one might think deaths among the elderly in 2020 would have gone down in the peak weeks of this flu season, which clearly did not happen according to my analysis.

The fact the number of elderly deaths clearly increased in many states supports my hypothesis that a new or different virus could explain the increase in “pre-Covid” deaths among the elderly.

Spike in deaths blows up in Week 13 …

From this nationwide database showing “excess deaths” for all ages, one can clearly see that deaths exploded after the lockdowns - lockdowns which were mandated to prevent infections, and thus future deaths.

From November 2nd through March 14, I charted 20 weeks of data showing “excess deaths” nationwide.

In only six of these weeks was any “excess death” above 0.0 percent reported. These dates were November 9 (0.4 percent), November 16 (0.3 percent), January 4 (1.3 percent), January 11 (1.6 percent), March 7 (1.0 percent) and March 14 (0.2 percent).

Note: The small increases in the first two weeks in January (much more conspicuous in older citizens), might suggest a significant ILI outbreak in mid to late December.

Excess death nation-wide, all-ages, by Week, 2020 …

March 21 (Week 12): 1.6 percent

March 28 (Week 13): 9 percent

April 4: 26.1 percent

April 11: 39.5 percent

April 18: 36.3 percent

Excess deaths remained elevated for years. For example, the lowest “excess death” percentage the rest of 2020 was 8.8 percent on June 13th. By December 19, 2020, the figure was an eye-opening 41.9 percent. By January 9, 2021, the figure hit a record high at 46.6 percent.

By September 18, 2021- approximately nine months after vaccination had begun and 19 months after the pandemic had officially begun - excess death rates in America were still 35.6 percent.

By January 22, 2022 - more than a year after vaccination had begun - excess death was still 41.5 percent. 

Clearly, vaccination did not end “excess deaths” in America. (Per my research, approximately 85 percent of elderly citizens were vaccinated).

Spike in Michigan excess deaths is even more eye-opening …

Michigan: All-cause deaths (all ages), in excess of predicted value, 2020:

March 14: 0 percent

March 21: 3.8 percent

March 28: 24.8 percent

April 4: 61 percent

April 11: 76.1 percent

April 18: 65.4 percent

April 25: 48.6 percent

The average percentage of excess deaths in Michigan in the four weeks of April 2020 was 62.8 percent.

This compares to the average excess death percentage from Jan. 4 through March 4, 2020 of 0.81 percent.

Excess deaths increased 77.5 fold in Michigan in April 2020.

2018 Compared to 2020 …

In Michigan, I compared deaths from 2020 and 2018 as 2018 was the most deadly flu season in 40 years. As it turns out, the Covid year of 2020 was far more deadly for those aged 75 to 84.

Total deaths 2020: 28,697 (2,291 deaths/month).

Total deaths 2018: 23,449 (1,954 deaths/month).

This is an increase of 5,248 deaths. Among those 75 to 84, 22.4 percent more deaths occurred in 2020 than in 2018. While most of the difference is explained by deaths that happened in April and after,  the above data also shows that more elderly residents in Michigan also died in January - March, “pre-Covid” months.

After vaccination, deaths went down a smidgen in 2021

While 2020 was the year Covid (allegedly) arrived, 2021 was the year the Covid vaccine arrived. In many states, more than 85 percent of senior citizens were vaccinated, with the elderly getting the first chance to get the shots once they were introduced in December 2020/January 2021.

If the vaccines were “95 percent effective at preventing deaths” in the vaccinated, one would expect mortality among the 75 to 84 age group to revert to pre-Covid numbers. This definitely did not happen.

Total deaths in Michigan for those 75 to 84 from 2019-2021:

2019 (Pre-Covid): 23,745 

2020 (Covid): 28,697

2021 (Post-Vaccine):  28,360 

 Note: A decrease of 337 deaths (1.17 percent) compared to 2020.

Still, recorded deaths increased 4,615 (19.44 percent) compared to the pre-Covid year of 2019. For some reason, deaths continued to be near all-time highs even after 85 to 90 percent of the elderly had been vaccinated. 

For all ages, there were more deaths in Michigan in 2021 (117,756) than in 2020 (117,087).

Hospitals that served the poor produced most of deaths

The largest city in Michigan, Detroit, was one of a handful of cities (including New York City, New Orleans and Chicago) where excess deaths exploded far beyond rates seen in other cities and states in the nation.

As a few politically-incorrect contrarians have noted, a disproportionate percentage of these deaths occurred in large urban hospitals that primarily serve the poor.  Also, a huge percentage of deaths occurred in nursing homes. 

In future articles, I will further document the massive spike of deaths in nursing homes in America (and the world). Based on preliminary research, deaths in Michigan nursing homes were among the highest in the country.

In short, I think “Covid deaths” in April and May 2020 were largely confined to hospitals that serve the poor and nursing homes. This also suggests that myriad new medical protocols, panic, fear and employee shortages largely explain the bulk of the “excess mortality” shown above.

Pre-Covid medical protocols were far better

While I think more people than has been acknowledged were already dying from or with Covid prior to mid-March 2020, absent the new Covid medical protocols, these deaths would have still been relatively small or similar to death numbers from other ILI outbreaks. 

This analysis also suggests that the medical treatments used to treat sick people before March 15 were far more effective at preventing Covid deaths than the protocols implemented on or around the lockdown dates.

Instead of practicing the Hippocratic Oath and endeavoring to “first, do no harm,” it seems the opposite happened. 

I’m among the growing group who believes the government and medical community’s response to this virus caused tremendous harm and massive numbers of unnecessary deaths.

Best medical and scientific practices also suggest that officials would have been very interested in learning how many people had been infected with Covid prior to March 2020 and also how many people might have already died from the disease.

While this number might not have been eye-opening, the above analysis strongly suggests it was far greater than zero.