It’s All Probabilities, Stupid …

Few people act upon accurate probabilities and many probabilities the public thinks are true are scam-level fictions.

In all probability, the official probabilities were loaded from the start.

My growing list of New Abnormal maxims includes this postulate: “Every big decision in life can be explained by Risk-Benefit Analysis.” A corollary of this maxim is that citizens need to be able to correctly calculate probabilities, which most people can’t do.

Today, I want to highlight a few glaring examples that prove most people either don’t know how to correctly calculate probabilities or, because the probabilities they’ve been fed are bogus, they make terrible decisions based on fraudulent probabilities.

The most egregious bogus probability of our times was the one that told the masses they might die if they contracted a new contagious and “deadly” virus.

As events have proven (and everyone should have known by April 2020) the probability any healthy person under the age of, say, 40 would “die from Covid” was virtually 0 percent.

The odds a healthy child or young adult under the age of 20 would die from Covid is approximately 0.0001 percent (or more than 1-in-1 million.)

However, in the early weeks and months of official Covid, “experts” told the world the probability someone infected by Covid would die was at least 3.4 percent, which means approximately 1-in-30 infected persons would die if they contracted this disease.

This figure was later reduced to 1 percent, which would still mean that 1-in-100 infected people would die … which, we should all acknowledge, is a far scarier probability than 1-in-1 million+.

The flu Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) has long been established by experts as 0.1 percent, which means 1-in-1,000 people who get the flu will die from it. A 1-in-100 chance of dying from Covid is 10 times greater than a 1-in-1,000 death risk from influenza. (This is why someone like Anthony Fauci could say that Covid was at least 10 times more “deadly” than the flu.)

Of course, the flu fatality rates have always been manipulated/inflated … no doubt to sell even more flu shots.

In calculating “flu” mortality percentages, the CDC also combines/conflates deaths from pneumonia with deaths from “just” flu.

In Alabama, I recently found a vital statistic that showed that only 76 people died from “influenza” in a flu season right before Covid. However, if the Alabama Department of Public Health combines “flu and pneumonia” deaths, the “flu death” figure for that year was over 1,000.

If you look at only those who died under the age of 50, almost nobody would die from “Flu and Pneumonia.”

That is, working-age healthy people have almost a zero percent chance of dying from flu, pneumonia … or Covid. (I just saw this headline from CHD that asks whether the pneumonia “vaccine” actually increases the risk of developing pneumonia, which I’d think is a pretty sure bet.)

Bogus Probabilities matter …

Fraudulent probabilities matter as the narrative that “everyone” was at “risk” of dying from Covid explains why probably 50 percent of parents rushed their children to the doctor or pharmacy to get their Covid “vaccine.”

Needless to say, the odds a healthy 8 or 19-year-old would die (or develop another life-altering medical condition) because they got their Covid vaccine are massively higher than the odds this young person would contract and then die from Covid.

The naive, gullible or trusting public are also inundated with a flood of other bogus probabilities.

For example, the public was told if they got their Covid “vaccine,” they’d have a 95 percent chance of either not contracting the virus in the first place or at least not dying from it or have to be hospitalized.

(When the public health experts said the Covid vaccines were “95 percent effective,” these experts were disseminating a brazenly bogus probability - aka “disinformation.”)

To this day, the public has never learned an accurate or plausible percentage of people who had already contracted Covid by the lockdown dates of mid-March 2020.

This is very important information as even Anthony Fauci once told Americans they don’t need a flu vaccine if they’ve already had the flu. Per sound logic, if you’ve already contracted a respiratory virus, the probability you will soon catch it again is virtually zero percent - due to something called “natural immunity.”

With Covid, nobody knows what percentage of Americans had already acquired natural immunity to Covid by the time of the lockdowns. Per my “early spread” research, this percentage is almost certainly 10 percent of the national population but might be 30 or 40 percent. If my taboo estimates are accurate, this would be 33 million to maybe 100 million Americans who had “nothing to worry about” from Covid.

What’s the probability the PCR test gave citizens bogus results?

A skeptic also wonders what the true “false positive” probability was for the PCR Covid test. Some skeptics say this probability figure exceeds 90 percent, but it’s certainly at least 50 percent. (In other words, at least half the people who were labeled a “Covid case” experienced no medical symptoms).

I’m one of the few independent journalists who continue to note that almost 100 percent of Americans couldn’t receive a PCR “diagnostic” test before mid-March 2020 (or an antibody test).

The probability the experts and authorities could identify millions of possible/likely “early” Covid cases was close to zero percent … because 99.999 percent of Americans never got a PCR test or antibody test.

In my opinion, this is an example of the in-the-know experts rigging the probabilities.

*** (The probability this essay reaches enough people to matter is … not very high. Still, I continue to add this reach-enhancing button to my articles.) ***

Has anyone calculated the death probabilities from iatrogenic reasons?

The pubic also doesn’t know the real probability/likelihood that alleged “Covid victims” might have died from causes that had nothing to do with a new “deadly” respiratory virus.

How many alleged Covid victims might have actually died from ventilators, powerful sedatives, dehydration, remdesivir or the “Nocebo” effect that caused misguided patients and doctor to have an extreme and irrational fear of Covid?

How many of these patients might have survived if their loved ones weren’t kept away from them while they were, arguably, being murdered by new hospital protocols and “guidance?”

Since the NIH allocates billions of dollars in medical research grants, it certainly seems like $100 million could have been given to legit researchers who might perform a study to attempt to answer this key question.

However, the probability such a taboo study would be commissioned and then widely-disseminated to the public is also virtually zero percent.

The Censorship Industrial Complex was created to squash threatening probability scenarios …

This point, in fact, illustrates how important probability studies are squashed or suppressed. Indeed, this point shows how the Censorship Industrial Complex is based entirely on probabilities.

Correctly understood, the Censorship Industrial Complex (including the “fact checkers” and the “watchdog” mainstream press) was created (or captured) to severely reduce the probability that the intelligent 1 to 2 percent might be able to reach large swaths of the public with information and facts that might debunk widely-accepted but bogus narratives.

Stunning real change - narrative changes powerful enough to “drain the swamp” - would require maybe 51 percent of the public coming to the realization that the people and organizations they trust are, in fact, brazen and serial liars … and are causing mass misery.

Such an epiphany would have to be triggered by what I call a “thermo-nuclear truth bomb,” one that, somehow (against all odds) actually detonates.

However, if the people who could produce this “thermo-nuclear” source material can never reach 51 percent of the public, this result is almost 100-percent guaranteed to NOT happen.

Every bad result that does happen … and every positive, society-enhancing result that will not happen - is determined by probabilities.

I’ve recently come to the conclusion that the only event that might result in the banning of future Covid mRNA vaccines is if President Trump gets behind this initiative.

However, for argument’s sake, if President Trump is effectively “captured” by Big Pharma and Big Science/Medicine, the probability this will happen is, again, very close to zero percent.

***

Of all my Maxims, the most salient and significant might be the one that observes that all important truth-seeking organizations are now captured.

In my essays, the best question I ask is why something actually happened.

Per my theory, all important truth-seeking organizations weren’t captured simply for kicks and giggles. They were captured for a reason. (Expressed differently, all of these organizations HAD to be captured for the world’s real rulers to remain in charge of the world).

All of the above sentences tie into one another. If one asks why a mother would allow her child who has zero risk of dying from Covid to get a Covid vaccine, the answer is obvious. She bought into the bogus mortality probabilities. It never occurred to her that “trusted” officials or companies might game the probability percentages.

As a writer, I play the probabilities - even if I know the outcomes I’m pulling for are long-shots …

Probability percentages are the basis of almost every article or essay I write.

Time and time again, I ask myself what strategy or journalism might flip the probabilities and make it possible the Bad Guys are actually identified and held accountable.

I’m smart enough (or honest enough) to know this probability is very low … because I know all important truth-seeking organizations are completely captured.

The reason I moved my writing to Substack is entirely explained by probabilities.

I recognized that “thermo-nuclear truth bombs” might be the only way to produce the Mass Purge of toxic, captured and obtuse leaders I believe must happen to, perhaps, save the world.

I knew social media and legacy media were captured, but Substack wasn’t 100 percent captured. In fact, for years, not only could any “contrarian” author post whatever story he or she wanted on Substack, a proven probability existed that these articles could reach ever-growing numbers of citizens.

While the probability Substack was the writers’ platform that would allow the truth to reach the masses might have been low, this scenario was 1,000 times greater than, say, the New York Times’ professional journalists publishing brave and important journalism.

That is, I decided to play the odds in a game of 3-D chess where the key to victory for the Resistance was its ability to get around the “gatekeepers of the news.”

Today, my view is that Powers that Be, belatedly, figured out Substack’s contrarian authors might qualify as real threat (risk) to their unfinished agendas and their continued control.

Why Substack’s changing metrics matter …

The reason I’ve published so many stories about changing and “curious” Substack metrics is I think the world’s real rulers are simply trying to reduce the probability certain Substack authors might either harpoon their myriad future programs or expose them for past “crimes against humanity.”

Anybody who happens to be pulling for the detonation of a thermo-nuclear truth bomb (like photos of the embalmers’ clots “going viral”) knows the probability this narrative-changing event will occur might be slim to none. (So far, this probability has been zero percent.)

The reason this probability is so low is the world’s real rulers, over time, captured every organization with any semblance of a probability to expose them.

Indeed, on the surface level, it might seem impossible that Pandemic Producers could produce a massive and faux “killer” pandemic. After all, the plan/conspiracy involved hundreds of disparate parts and participants - things that had to be done (like coming up with the all-important PCR tests).

However, if every important organization was indeed captured (and so many necessary accomplices could be so easily bribed), even the Mother of All Faux Pandemics would be stunningly easy to produce.

In retrospect, the key to the operation was silencing, bullying or suppressing the reach of the key “adults in the room” who were onto their diabolical plans.

Going forward - to, say, digital ID - brazen or camouflaged censorship will remain the key to the operation.

If any threat posed by Substack contrarians has been neutralized, the probability future plans will be brought to fruition will be much greater.

All of which means somebody, somehow has to change the probabilities that made a toxic Status Quo possible.

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