I’m doing a big ‘early spread’ interview tomorrow
And this is how I’m going to try to illustrate the “deadly virus” narrative was always a farce.
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I’m scheduled to do a podcast interview tomorrow with Nicolas Hulscher, an epidemiologist and citizen journalist for Dr. Peter McCullough’s organization and one of Substack’s most-read “Covid Contrarian” authors (129,000 subscribers).
Our topic is “early spread,” so I’m excited to talk to a citizen journalist who has a much larger “reach” than I do.
In thinking about this interview, I was trying to come up with the best way to illustrate why “early spread” should be viewed as a topic of great importance.
My main point is that “early spread” - if confirmed or acknowledged by most people - would prove that Covid-19 was NOT a “deadly virus.”
I think the following extrapolations might illustrate my central point.
Based on my extensive research, my early-spread hypothesis posits that millions (plural) of global citizens had already been infected with the virus that causes the disease Covid-19 by the end of November 2019. (I think virus spread probably began in September 2019 if not earlier).
According to the Red Cross antibody study, 2.03 percent of blood donors in the states of California, Oregon and Washington already had Covid antibodies by early December 2019 (if not November 2019 or even earlier).
If we extrapolate 2 percent to the entire American population of 330 million people, we might conclude that at least 6.6 million Americans had already been infected by these same dates.
Also, if this was indeed a “contagious virus,” this figure would have certainly expanded as we moved further into the flu or “respiratory virus” season. Still, to be conservative, I’m going to use the 6.6 million figure to try to illustrate my point.
According to the experts, this was your chance of dying from this disease …
If citizens remember, in the early weeks of the emerging Covid scare (roughly mid-February to early March 2020), experts were saying this novel virus was especially “deadly.” The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) that was proffered most often was 3.4 percent.
If true, this would mean that more than three out of every 100 people who were “infected” would later die from the disease this virus caused.
Using math, an IFI of 3.4 percent means that approximately 1-in-30 Americans who contracted this virus would, sadly, die.
For purposes of this essay, it doesn’t matter that this IFR was later revised significantly downward. At the time, this was the figure used to scare the daylights out of everyone.
For pandemic producers, “Scaring the daylights out of everyone” was, in fact, the main and most-important goal.
If proven, early spread would mean that people didn’t need to be scared at all.
This is what math tells us …
If 6.6 million American citizens had already been infected with this virus by early December 2019 and the IFR was, in fact, 3.4 percent, this virus would have already killed 224,000 Americans by the end of December 2019.
Note: Per the same experts, on average, the time between “onset of symptoms” or “infection” and later Covid death was approximately 21 days.
That is, if 6.6 million people had been infected by December 1st, at least 224,000 infected Americans would have been dead by around December 22nd.
In my opinion, someone would have noticed an “extra” 224,000 deaths all clumped together in the span of a few weeks.
Since nobody noticed any spike in excess deaths, the only conclusion one can make is that no novel, extremely-deadly virus was killing off hundreds of thousands of Americans.
Or, if there was a virus, it certainly wasn’t deadly.
IMO this illustration should tell the world that the “deadly,” once-in-a-century virus panic was based on a massive and brazen lie.
Instead, it was propaganda (and malicious disinformation) intended to scare the daylights out of the entire would population, a psyop intended to get billions of people to comply with the lockdown narratives that were getting ready to be marketed as the only solution to this grave threat.
This propaganda also established the predicate that everyone would have to get the “Warp- Speed” mRNA vaccines that were being rushed to market.
If you didn’t get these shots, you and your sweet grandmother and your precious beautiful child had a 1-in-30 chance of dying.
To be fair, by the times the vaccines were ready, the experts had lowered the likely IFR to somewhere around 1 percent.
Still, 1 percent would mean that instead of 1-in-30 infected people dying, 1-in-100 infected people would die. That’s still a death risk eye-opening enough to make most people rush to their pharmacy to get themselves and their entire family inoculated.
Let’s bring these numbers down to the local level …
When I use math extrapolations, I find it’s sometimes more effective to use a more local, or micro, example to illustrate one’s points.
For example, I live in a county with a population of 34,000 people.
In fact, our county - like hundreds or thousands of communities in America - experienced a noticeable spike in Influenza like Illness (ILI) in December 2019 and January 2020.
In fact, my two kids and I were as sick as a dog in January 2020. My wife is a school teacher, and when I was sick in bed for a week, she came home one day and said that “half” of one of her classes (15 students) was out sick with “something.”
Based on anecdotes like this - and my journalist investigation - I estimate that at least 2,000 of my neighbors (about 5.8 percent of our county’s residents) were “sick” in the months of December 2019 and January 2020.
Again referencing the results of the Red Cross antibody study, if 2 percent of Pike County residents were infected by this virus by December 1st that would be 680 people with “early Covid.” (I’m being conservative as this figure is much lower than my estimate of at least 2,000 sick Pike Countians).
If 3.4 percent of these 680 infected Pike County residents died, that would be at least 20 “Covid deaths” in Pike County by the end of December 2019. (One assumes this mortality figure would keep going up in January and February).
Alas, I don’t remember anyone in my community dying from a respiratory bug in December 2019, or January and February 2020. (From reporting, I did learn that many of my neighbors were “sick as a dog” between December and early February or had strange, acute or lingering coughs, etc.)
But, as far as I know, none of these neighbors died.
*** (Early spread is near the top of the Taboo List so thanks for sharing.) ***
ILI was widespread and severe throughout the South …
I later learned that outbreaks of ILI were “severe” and “widespread” in five Deep South states beginning in November 2019 and lasting through February 2020. One of these states was Alabama; another was neighboring Georgia.
Atlanta, Georgia happens to be headquarters of the CDC, which employs more than 10,000 people.
It occurred to me if a contagious respiratory virus (that might have been early Covid) was circulating throughout the South, this virus would have infected many people in Georgia and that state’s most densely-populated city, Atlanta.
It would have also infected X percent of the employees of the CDC.
By March 1, 2020 (when Covid had become THE story in the world), this virus almost certainly would have infected five percent of the CDC’s 10,000 employees - which is 500 public health professionals.
If the Covid IFR was 3.4 percent - which the experts in this building said it was in March 2020 - the CDC would have had 17 deceased workers.
Instead, as of this date, zero (0) CDC workers had died from a respiratory disease.
I trust my readers are following my logic here …
The CDC couldn’t say this virus began to spread in November 2019 (and had an IFR of 3.4 percent - or even 1 percent) and then, plausibly, explain why this “deadly virus” hadn’t killed a single one of its own employees yet.
If this was a contagious and deadly virus, five to 17 dead CDC employees, via a tragic method, would have already proven the deadliness of this virus.
I also keep pointing out that it was the CDC - among 50 other state health agencies - who produce weekly reports that monitor ILI outbreaks.
That is, some employee at the CDC had to know that a respiratory virus - with the identical symptoms of Covid - was, in fact, spreading throughout almost all of the country’s 50 states, and especially several states in the Deep South.
Still, the public is asked to believe that no expert at the CDC, NIH or WHO ever considered the possibility this virus might have been infecting large swaths of the population before the “Wuhan outbreak.”
To this day, I wonder what the results would have been if the CDC administered antibody tests to all 10,000 of its employees in early March 2020.
I’d bet a year’s worth of Substack revenue the results of this antibody test would have shown significantly more than 2 percent of these employees already had Covid antibodies.
I also remind readers that the results of the ONE Red Cross antibody study (of “archived” blood) weren’t publicized until November 30, 2020 - almost 12 months after this tranche of donors donated blood on Dec. 13-16, 2019.
I still maintain it does NOT take 11 1/2 months to test a couple hundred vials of blood for antibodies.
So what do you really think, Bill?
What I really think is that some experts in our “trusted” public health agencies knew all along a novel respiratory virus was spreading and that this virus could have escaped from a lab and had probably already infected millions of people.
These same people must have also known this virus/disease wasn’t lethal to hardly anyone who was infected.
But if this cadre of conspiring experts told the public this … they knew they probably couldn’t order the lockdowns, mandatory masks, school closures, designate certain employees as “essential” and others “non-essential” and ban the population from going to church or their favorite restaurant for nine to 20 months.
They could try to scare everyone into getting an experimental “vaccine,” but if the public knew their odds of dying from this virus was, say, 0-in-10,000 (the IFR for CDC employees) and really wasn’t 1-in-30 or 1-in-100 …most of these now-informed citizens probably wouldn’t get these shots.
Not only did early spread almost-certainly happen; it’s almost certain a major, multi-pronged conspiracy was enacted to cover-up early spread.
Alas, a scandal that should have made Page-1 news around the world never even made it to Page 44-C.
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*** (No subscription solicitation today, but thank you for reading!) ***
In November of 2019, all 50 people in the office I worked at in San Francisco got sick on the same day. It was so incredibly strange that I made a note of it in my work log.
Yet no one got all that sick. I didn't even stay home from work, in spite of a headache and metallic smell.
People may have been taught math in school, but apparently you can not be taught to use it .. fery few actually do trivial calculations in their daily lives .. looking at the numbers one can immediately figure out it was all just a statistical noise and there was no "deadly" & "novel" disease. Once you figure that out, you can not fall for the fear mongering scam and you go on with your life while obesrving in amazement how stupid the people are, no matter their education ..