For overwhelming majority of Americans, fear of Covid makes no statistical sense

My deep dive into Covid data wasn’t published … until now.

Truth be told the vast majority of families faced virtually no risk from Covid.

Author’s note: In November 2020, I spent several weeks crunching Covid mortality numbers and  performing my own original extrapolations and analysis. I submitted my article to numerous news organizations, but none chose to publish it.

I recently re-read this unpublished work and I still think it’s very interesting, perhaps even important. Anyway, now that I have my own Substack site, I can publish my own article.

For those wishing to skim this article, I added sub-heads for the different categories of analysis. I added bits of commentary, some of it no doubt politically incorrect.

This data largely comes from statistics compiled by the end of October 2020 or, in some cases, through mid-November 2020. I calculated mortality probabilities from data found at the CDC’s Covid dashboard. In my opinion, “Covid deaths” are significantly over-stated. If I write that that 1,000 Americans in a specific demographic group  died “from” Covid, the real or more believable figure (to me anyway) might be 500. That is, when calculating mortality risks, you could probably divide the numerator by at least two to get a more plausible fraction.

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Any person seeking to assess his own probability of dying from Covid must acknowledge the central role that age plays in any legitimate analysis of personal health risks. As the statistics below document, Americans under the age of 45 have almost no rational reason to fear death from COVID-19. This analysis seeks to quantify how minuscule these risks are.

One’s race also has to be considered when calculating one’s own mortality risks from Covid. For whatever reasons, the mortality risk for whites - especially younger whites - is far lower than for African-Americans and Latinos.

Through today’s date (November 24, 2020), more than 250,000 Americans have died from or with COVID-19. Taken by itself, such a large figure does seem “scary.”  However, the population of America is 331 million people. This means that 330.75 million Americans (99.93 percent of the population) have NOT died from or with Covid.

Of the 0.07 percent of the population that has died from or with Covid, the majority of these decedents had already exceeded the average American life expectancy of 78.6 years.

COVID Deaths among American population younger than 35 …

In the age cohort of Americans under the age of 35, there had been 2,270 Covid deaths through November 14th, 2020. This means Americans under the age of 35 accounted for just 0.098 percent of all Covid deaths (2,270 deaths divided by 231,191 Covid deaths through Nov. 18).  Of these 2,270 deaths in the 34-and-under age cohort, the vast majority were among Blacks & Hispanics/Latinos.

Quick snapshot of data that jumped out at me …

In comparing Covid death rates by age and race, the following statements of fact can be made (statistics through Oct. 28 unless noted otherwise).

• Only 3 percent of all Covid deaths in America (6,379 out of 212,328) occurred in the population under the age of 45. Said differently, 97 percent of all COVID deaths occurred in those older than 44.

• As a percentage of all Covid deaths, whites under the age of 45 comprise only 0.48 percent of deaths (1,019 deaths of the Oct. 28-total of 212,328.) Said differently, a group that makes up 30 percent of the national population (whites under the age of 45) has accounted for less than 1/2 of 1 percent of all COVID deaths.

• In the U.S., 80 percent of all Covid deaths have occurred among those 65 and older.

• By a wide margin and including all races, the age cohort that has produced the greatest number of deaths (the plurality cohort) is 85-and-over, accounting for 69,252 deaths through Nov. 12, 2020. This group, which includes 6.61 million Americans (2 percent of the population), has accounted for at least 31 percent of all Covid deaths in America.

• In comparison, the under-45 age cohort, which includes 190.83 million Americans (58.1 percent of the population), has accounted for only 6,642 Covid deaths.

• Summarizing: the youngest 60 percent of America’s population (those 44 and younger) has produced just 3 percent of Covid deaths, while the very oldest group of Americans, comprising just 2 percent of the population, has produced at least 31 percent of all Covid deaths.

COVID deaths by age in other countries ….

The average age of those who have died from coronavirus in England and Wales is 82.4, which is 2.5 years older than the life expectancy of a UK male (79.9 years). In the UK, 73 percent of Covid deaths have occurred among those 75 and older.

In Scotland, 43 percent of Covid deaths have occurred in the population 85-and-older.

Through May 7th in Japan, not a single person aged 30 or under had died of COVID-19.

Covid mortality rates in Italy and Spain are among the highest in the world. However, through May 13th, no person in Italy under the age of 20 had died of COVID. Only two people under the age of 20 had died in Spain as of May 12.

What about Sweden?

Sweden has become famous (or infamous) for taking the road less travelled with its contrarian Covid policies. A common critique of Sweden’s non-lockdown and non-mask approach is that Sweden’s death rates (on a per capita basis) are much higher than its neighbors of Denmark, Norway and Finland. This is true.

However, if one simply looks at Swedish mortality rates by age cohorts, the criticism appears to be agenda-driven.

Through November 3rd, Sweden had recorded 5,997 COVID deaths. Of this number, 89 percent had occurred among those 70 and over … and 38.7 percent (nearly 40 percent) had occurred among residents aged 90 or older!

In Sweden, the majority of Covid deaths have occurred among the segment of the population that has already reached or exceeded the country’s life expectancy of 82.3 years. As has been the case in many countries, in Sweden half of all deaths have occurred among residents who were living in a “care” home (nursing home).

Through Nov. 3rd, Sweden (which has a population of 10.23 million) had recorded only two COVID deaths of citizens under the age of 20. Of Sweden’s 5,997 Covid deaths, only 76 (1.27 percent) had occurred in the population under the age of 50.

Covid deaths by age in different U.S. states …

From this CDC source, one can compare Covid deaths by age cohorts in many states. The following data - current through November 14, 2020 - was revealing to this author.

In Maine, no female under the age of 65 has died of COVID-19.

Iowa and Kentucky (among other states) have recorded no Covid deaths under the age of 30.

In Kentucky, which has a population of 4.5 million, only 49  residents under the age of 50 had died of Covid through Nov. 14.  Expressed differently, among Kentuckians under the age of 50, Covid has claimed about 6 victims per month. By way of comparison, 724 Kentucky residents died in a motor vehicle accident in 2018 (an average of 60 deaths/month).

In Illinois, no female under the age of 25 has died of COVID-19.

Florida has recorded 16,974 Covid deaths through November 18, 2020. Of this number, just 137 (0.8 percent) occurred among those under the age of 35.

• In Kansas, 36 percent of all Covid fatalities have occurred among those 85 and over.

Suicide statistics, age 44 and under …

To compare COVID mortality figures to another tragic but common cause of death, I  examined suicide statistics.

In 2018, 22,348 Americans age 44 and under took their own lives. This is 19.5 times more fatalities than occurred in the last eight+ months from Covid (1,145 deaths) among whites 45 and younger.

Have Covid policies increased odds of suicide?

Among the group most concerned about the mental-health impacts of Covid policies are parents of college students. Parents in several states have even created Facebook Groups to publicly share their concerns.

In a nutshell, these parents are advocating for a more “normal” college experience for their children and have become fierce critics of the “draconian” Covid policies they believe have left their children isolated and experiencing new and unnecessary levels of stress.

Sadly, it also goes without saying that the probability a college student will die from suicide is far higher than the odds the same student may die from Covid.

Indeed, at present, the odds a current college student will die from Covid are (no typo) … 6.6 million-to-1. Math: Since college classes resumed in August, 2020, there have been three (3) deaths* (see source below) reported among college students. I divided this figure (3 student deaths) by the estimated number of college students in America - 20 million - to get these odds.

In all 50 U.S. states, 10.6 white Americans aged 24 and younger have died of Covid  per month according to recent statistics. (This means the vast majority of states recorded no Covid deaths in this demographic cohort in a typical month).  In contrast, in 2018, an average of 591 people in the same age cohort died of suicide each month.

As 56 times more adolescents and young adults die from suicide per month than have died from Covid, any parent’s concerns that COVID-19 policies might be increasing the risk of suicides among their college-aged children should not be cavalierly dismissed.

This is especially true given the results of a CDC study that found that 25.5 percent of 18-24 year olds had “seriously considered suicide” in the previous 30 days. A similar study in the UK found that within the younger population (aged13 to 25), 81 percent of surveyed young people reported a deterioration in their mental health.

Oklahoma State University has already had the same number of students who died from suicide (3) this semester as college students who have died of Covid at 50 other colleges in the country this semester.*

Student hospitalizations are almost non-existent ….

Not only have just three college students died from (or with) Covid in the past few months, almost none have been hospitalized either.

*Andrew Bostom has been “tracking” college deaths and hospitalizations at 50 colleges. Per Bostom’s update of Oct. 5, 2020, only three students at these 50 colleges had to be hospitalized due to COVID complications.

I didn’t calculate the average enrollment at these colleges, but if this figure is 20,000 students (a conservative estimate) that would give us one million students in Bostom’s sample. So at least at these 50 colleges, roughly 1-in-333,333 students has had to be admitted to the hospital due to Covid. (It would be illuminating to compare these figures to the number of college students at the same colleges who are admitted to a hospital each semester due to pneumonia or a bad case of the flu).

That is, if there is any fear of COVID-19 on college campuses, said fear is certainly not based on the metrics typically used to quantify alarming health concerns (i.e. deaths, hospitalizations and severity of symptoms).

However, the mental health concerns - caused not by the virus but by the response to the virus - are both real and legitimate. At least in the case of adolescents and young adults, these mental health issues will almost certainly end up being more deadly and/or life-altering than the novel coronavirus.

What is the average age of death from COVID in the USA?

This seems like an obvious question, one that would be easy to quickly learn the answer. However, after a least an hour of Google searches (involving 20 pages of links), I could not find the number I was seeking.

I did find the average age of death for a few states. For example, in Pennsylvania, the average age of death of a Covid victim as of the first week in May (2020) was listed as 79 (and nearly 68 percent of Covid deaths in this state occurred in assisted-living facilities).

In some fine print in a CDC “Supplemental Surveillance Study,” I learned that the median age for a white victim of Covid in our country is 81. As shown above, I also quickly learned that the average age of death in the UK is 82.4.

My unsuccessful search caused me to entertain a provocative question: Is it possible some kind of conspiracy exists among public health officials and the press to conceal or down-play the average age of a COVID-19 victim?

While I can’t prove if some kind of conspiracy explains this research oddity, I do think it’s possible that if this statistic was widely published, the fear associated with Covid might diminish. And if this happened, it’s also possible that acceptance of  government-imposed COVID mandates (and later vaccines) might have been far less widespread.

As it is, I was able to learn that the median age of death for white Covid victims exceeds the average life expectancy of a white American (78.6 years) by 2.4 years.

In truth, all deaths are not ‘tragic’ …

It’s often said or written that “all deaths are tragic,” but this is not really the case.  All deaths certainly bring sorrow to friends and loved ones of the decedent. (For those who have long endured unimaginable misery, or whose “quality of life” has been absent for years, death might even be considered a blessing.)

Genuinely tragic deaths claim the lives of the young or middle-aged, those who have had decades of their life taken from them. A possible silver lining of this pandemic is that the number of truly “tragic” deaths has been so small.

It’s also been said that “life is for the living” and that “we should not live our lives in fear.”

As many people grow older, their fear of death actually diminishes. But just about every loving parent never stops worrying about the future of the children and grandchildren they will leave behind.  As it turns out, policies touted as protecting the most vulnerable among us - namely, the elderly - are actually jeopardizing the well-being and and future of the people most dear to our oldest citizens.

Comparing Covid to the Mother of All Pandemics …

Estimates of the global deaths from the Spanish Flu range from 17.4 million to 50 million (even 100 million). The world population in 1918 was approximately 1.8 billion, 6 billion fewer than today’s estimated population of 7.8 billion.

As an article by by Max Roser notes,  “with respect to the impact of the Spanish flu it is striking that the …. pandemic had very little impact on older people.” (According to the author, this counter-intuitive data might be explained by the fact older residents had built up immunity from an earlier deadly and global influenza virus, the Russian Flu of 1890-1894).

“… The age-specific mortality (of COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu) seems to be very different …. The Spanish flu in 1918 was especially dangerous to infants and younger people. The new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 appears to be most lethal to the elderly …”

The Spanish Flu began in the latter part of World War I and indeed may have started at a U.S. military base and spread through the ranks of all military combatants. Of note, its impact was particularly lethal to young soldiers (aged 18 to 30). Needless to say, COVID-19 has almost completely spared the youngest among the world’s population.

I include this comparison to pose one question: How can so many of today’s Americans - in a country touted as “the home of the brave” -  be so terrified of a virus that, in comparison to The Spanish Flu, is the equivalent of a case of sniffles?

Indeed, given the paucity of Covid deaths among the younger and most active segments of the population, one wonders if 2020 Covid would have even registered on our ancestors’ fear meters. Certainly the lock-downs and draconian measures implemented by today’s government leaders would have struck our heartier great, great, great grandparents as bizarre.

… In conclusion, when it comes to the truth vs. the Covid narrative, those in the mainstream media always print the narrative, a narrative which does not provide the public an accurate picture of the real risks Covid poses to the vast majority of Americans.

NOTE: I added a few more factoids in the Reader Comments Section. These quantify the incredibly low mortality risks for younger whites.