48 Comments

In college, I got a minor in marketing. In my work experience, I've spent years selling advertising (print and radio). From all these experiences, I picked up the value of "branding campaigns" and appreciate how important a well-known or positive "brand" is.

In radio sales, we used to tell prospective advertisers, "keep running commercials year-round if you can afford to do so." If you do this with good commercials, when a citizen needs your product or service - and experiences the so-called "triggering event" - they'll first think of your business. Or you will be in the small group of business that a prospective customer will seek-out when they want or need to buy something.

This, I thought, might also apply to Substack authors. When someone discovers Substack, they are going to first and quickly discover the Substack authors who already have a pretty good brand or are well-known.

I thought in 2 1/2 years I might be in excellent position to pick up my "unfair share" of new Substack readers (because I've worked so hard to "grow my brand.")

But this really hasn't happened - which I find strange or interesting.

I do think this phenomena did apply for a while - the best-known "contrarian" Substack authors did experience rapid or impressive growth ... but then, for most of them, this boost stopped.

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I can illustrate my "reads-per-new-subscriber" metric by the email I just received from Substack.

My story "Et tu, RFK, Jr" was read by 4,600 people. It generated four (4) new (free) subscriptions.

It thus, took me 1,150 reads (or "page views") to generate one new new subscriber (4,600 reads/4 new subscribers).

In the first six or so months of my Substack, I might only have, say, 2,000 "reads", but those reads might produce 50 new subscribers.

I got one new subscriber for every 40 people who read my article. (2,000 reads/50 new subscribers = 40).

A change from 40 reads-per-1 subscriber to ...

1,150 reads per one subscriber

... is pretty striking to me.

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Bear in mind that some of us ignore substack emails. It used to be that you could kill the emails but keep your subscriptions. Alas, no more.

So I ignore the emails and come over to the site to read.

Am I the only one?

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That's what I do..

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On all of my subscriptions I have killed the email notifications, I have been here for a few years. I always access my inbox through the app. I think what I have done is unsubscribe from the email notifications IIRC.

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I don't know, whiskeys. I've wondered about this too. I think some of my "subscribers" aren't getting my emails, but still come directly to my Substack to find my articles.

I know for a fact I'm a paid subscriber to several newsletters and I never get any emails from them. I've been a paid subsriber to Steve Kirsch's site for years and can't remember the last time I got one of his stories in my email.

I'm an annual subcsriber to Dr. Paul Alexander and haven't gotten any of his emails in many months.

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Some Substack emails go to my junk folder for mysterious reasons.

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Personally, I decided that the start of my new year had too many extra emails coming to my Inbox, so I deleted all of my Substack subscriptions (except yours). Maybe it's as simple as that. Or the fact that people have a newfound sense of positivity in the USA, and they want to keep it and start listening (reading) less and doing more in outside in the real world. (OH! Just read that AustinBurbs thinks the same!) I know, how petty of us, but we're only human, not bots.

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Wow. You kept my Substack. Thank you!

I think my bottom-line is that, nefarious program or not, Substack is not the "solution" to slay dubious narratives that some of us once hoped it was.

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Yes, now that Trump is here everything will be okay. Understandable but I don't believe that. I am overwhelmed anyway. I have books stacked up to read that I haven't gotten around to.

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I think we all go on tangents where we buy books that we don't get around to reading or read much later.

This is not a perfect analogy as we have to pay money to get those books. 96 percent of my subscribers are getting my content for no charge. I also think my "paid ratio" of now 4 percent is actually much higher than many Substack authors.

Astute readers can probably figure out that I'm really thinking about new models that might be better for writers and readers than the Substack model.

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No one person can save us, but he's doing a damn good job of trying at the moment. Still overwhelmed, also, with stacks of books to read!

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Me too on the stacks of books. Now I feel a bit better. lol

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If you want to feel even better, consider that you probably have a different stack of books in front of you than you did 10 years ago. Meanwhile a midwit like me has THE SAME STACK of books from a decade ago :(

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I am not interested in stomping all over a great conspiracy theory. For context though, I subscribe to entirely too many talented writers. I frequently go through my subscriptions and cancel some because there is not enough time in my day to read everything. Even if I had time to read everyone I subscribe to, I decided to spend more time in the real world and less time online. My interests have also migrated over time.

I have only cancelled one subscription out of anger, and I am definitely not a bot.

I am not sure how common my approach is…

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Your scenario, which I agree is common or typical, still doesn't fully explain how hundreds of thousands or millions of Substack users all decided to start a major culling project at pretty much the exact same time.

And where are the new "contrarian" readers on Substack? Are all the new Substack readers liberals? That doesn't make sense either.

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Bill - last Wednesday alone, I had 8 people unsubscribe. Having just over 2,000 subs, I think that is suspect.

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That doesn't make sense either. Thanks for sharing that anecdote/intelligence, Laura.

Your site is definitely a "threat" to the Powers that Be. If there's one Substack the Establishment doesn't want to reach hundreds of thousands or millions of people it's "Clotastrophe" ... For obvious reasons.

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2dEdited

Have you considered the possibility, this phenomenon may be a double-edged psyop? Replace real subscribers' account with dummies to block the real subscribers from notifications, while keeping the author oblivious to the loss.

Check how many of your unsubscribes look like real names. In some ways most subscribers, also including me, are "bots" because we hide behind screen names. You don't really know whether I'm a flesh-and-blood human, or just some clever chatbot someone subscribed to to deceive authors such as yourself, and occasionally coaches how to go about it.

I have unsubscribed occasionally. The first was Alex Berenson (also my first subscription) when he fell into a "kill the Russians" trope. Others because I was no longer interested, or they were merely trial subscriptions that turned out not to interest me, or were pure paywall.

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I think your first paragraph captures the essential features of any possible psy-op.

I didn't get into it, but another interesting metric to study is the number of "likes" and "reader comments" different newsletters generate.

Many of these ascendant liberal newsletters with dubious subscriber numbers don't have nearly the number of "likes" and "reader comments" as the "contrarian" or "freedom" authors.

Of course, the "like" button or feature could be manipulated as well, I guess. I sometimes wonder about that.

I appreciate readers who hit the "like" button if for no other reason than it gives readers a gauge on the popularity of a given article. It also gives a clue that some of these allegedly popular Substacks might not have as many real readers as the published subscriber numbers suggest.

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I think you're onto something with looking at the comment volume. Relating that to subscriber ups and downs might be helpful. Obvious confounding factors there of course - certain topics and article content will generate differing comment numbers, so the relationship to number of readers will vary. Still, could be useful.

You can get an idea of the readership of a substack by the number of comments, it seems to me. Of course some paywall their comments so those substacks have way fewer comments compared to readers. That's easy to account for, just put those in their own separate category.

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I'm not a bot. I just unsubscribed as I'm not interested in Substack stat's, etc. I understand that is an interest of yours, tho I feel writing articles that are of interest to your readers should be the main focus of anyone who focuses so much on subscriber numbers.

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I find it of great interest, as with any peek behind the scenes.

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I agree. Why should that be of any interest to your readers?

Besides, we all get too many emails already and one cannot unsubscribe from the emails but just go over what people write every so often. I find that annoying and am deleting various substacks.

Also, most of the stuff written is already in the newsletter, so if I read the newsletter I likely never open the site. So, how would you know how many read your contents?

Anyway, for now I am leaving.

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Bill-- One thing that's kind of peculiar is that Substack will no longer let me scroll around in Substack websites on my smartphone. Substack wants me to download the app. I don't do apps. It's always been the case that I could view the website on my smartphone-- but for a couple of weeks now that is no longer the case. This is true not only for your Substack but for all the Substacks that I subscribe to, and also the ones I don't subscribe to. I don't have any problem viewing Substacks on my laptop, however. But that does kind of suck.

I have not updated my phone, perhaps that might solve that problem. But I don't do updates on my OS, either, unless I've just about got a gun to my head.

It's certainly within the realm of the highly possible that some bots with actual paid subscriptions are boosting the numbers for "official Biden / Harris narrative" types. After all, a lot, but a lot, but really a lot of money went into attempting to create the illusion that Kamala was a smart, capable person who would be a shoe-in for the presidency. (Um, not.) For your average billionaire the cost of a little army of bots on Substack would not even amount to "peanuts."

On the other hand, I am sorry to report that I am still living and working amongst many people who didn't get the memo. They seem to think the NYT is a fount of truth and excellent reporting and sparklingly informed and perceptive opinions, and they are terribly afraid -- I kid you not-- terribly afraid that the Bad Orange Man is going to censor them. You know, 'cuz he's just so bad and Elon makes Nazi salutes, etc etc & etc. I wouldn't put it past them to pay for a Subscription to Paul Krugman or such types. LOL, I gave up on asking Scottie to beam me up about 3 years ago.

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Hmmm. My phone is ancient, I don't think it even gives updates anymore.

I get the occasional advert here for the app, but I still don't have a problem reading on the website. Were I forced to use an app I'd probably quit, too.

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To be clear, I'm not quitting my subscription. I'm a big fan. I continue reading it on my laptop no problem.

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I enjoyed reading it on Hunter's laptop, but then he lost it.

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As far as I’m concerned, if Substack ends up becoming full of anti-MAGA writers, they can go the way of Facebook, X, Instagram or Tick-Tock…sayonara. In fact, it seems lately it’s becoming more and more Facebookie. It’s made being here hard to stomach for periods too long. It’s not that I’m so MAGA, I’m not. But the intelligence, or lack thereof, of the far lefties (not “real democrats) is what I despise.

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It’s all ad hominem IMO. They can’t come up with specifics or links but just hate trump more. Many think they are democrats. But they aren’t. They belong to the Trump Hate 24/7 Club. I have a sister like that. She is ignorant about the parties. I think she mostly voted GOP (if she even voted) and hated unions in the past. Now, yikes, she is a totally captured TDS acolyte.

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I am fascinated by your efforts to understand how the number of subscribers change.

I fall into the camp of having only so many minutes a day to spend reading Substack pages. I originally subscribed to every writer that I found interesting. Then, as my reading time increased, I began to cancel subscriptions. I have come be attached to a certain group of writers, and can delay reading their essays for a day or more, to better fit it into my schedule.

I was initially attracted to the covid deniers, as nobody else was writing about the subject. This topic seems to have "settled down", or perhaps subdivided. While it is still interesting, other topics have caught my eye.

Best of luck to you Bill!

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I’m actually new to Substack and already I’ve become so overwhelmed by the things I’m reading I’m beginning to unsubscribe. I only have one that I pay for because I simply can’t afford anymore than that. A dozen eggs versus a paid Substack, sorry it’s a no brainer. I enjoy all the writers I subscribe to, but unfortunately I need to give my brain a rest. I might stick with you Bill because you’re one of the good ones. In my opinion I don’t believe any of the numbers that some of the liberals are boasting about obtaining new subscribers. Thank you.

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2dEdited

Just a free subscriber here. Many times I don't get emails from Substack for certain writers. But there are so many writers out there now that I'm continually pruning what I read.

And if someone is way off base and rubs me wrong, I tend to unsubscribe. It's not because I need to only read people I agree with; heck, I love a good writer who makes me open my mind to other possibilities. But some get totally off base and I just reach a point of unsubscribe. (For example, one who will go nameless really went off the rails the last couple weeks and that, combined with that writer's continually honest but heart-breaking and completely negative writing about world things that I'm in no position to change, did it in for me with that writer. I mean, I can only handle so much negative stuff so going off the rails is just a bridge too far. (Excuse the mixing of metaphors.))

Engagement with each other in the comments is a big draw too. Writers who lock down engagement do a disservice. I get it that they probably don't want to monitor the baddies or they feel the need to reward those who pay, but a one-sided convo is sure to make me wander away pretty quickly.

And regarding the comments, Substack changed something for the last month or so (not sure when it started) in no longer emailing replies to my comments. It took me a while to figure out how to see the replies and now I try to remember to look for replies. But in no longer emailing replies, Substack has made it more difficult to have meaningful conversation.

I'm not sure how helpful I've been but these are some of my experiences and observations. I do think that all the recent eye-popping changes going on on Substack warrant some concern but I'm hoping that this won't result in steamrolling (or Parloring) conservatives and non-Narratives as has happened in other media.

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Yeah, I’ve started unsubscribing from DoomStacks. Plus scrolling past relentlessly pessimistic and scare mongering commenters . I know who they are by now and the cut and paste extreme length of posts has turned me off.

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Yep!

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Not trying to be a smartass, but maybe they don’t like your content. It’s possible. How much do you think us free subscriber dudes care to hear your analysis of why your numbers are goofy? I mean, let’s get on with the news, etc blah………

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That is why posts have titles and headlines, you can spend time on the ones of interest. This one actually grabbed me.

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All of this may mean that consolidation is needed. "The Free Press" for Covid dissidents.

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Maybe some of the new free subscribers had inadvertently clicked yes to the question of subscribe to these other substacks that so and so recommends/also reads/whatever it is it says I forget. I’ve accidentally done that early on and then saw these random substacks in my inbox and had to go unsubscribe because they were nothing I was interested in reading. I’ve no idea how these recommendations are determined—is it the actual author or is it substack picking out the add ons? Either way every time you agree to subscribe to a new substack there is a page that asks if you want these others and the big button says yeah sure or you can pick maybe later or some such. Just an idea.

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I look forward to observing the Meteoric Rise of "The Standard Shit For Brains" Acosta here on the Substack Promoted Losers Platform

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It’s clear that Substack is getting more attention as a valued source of unbiased information. That’s one anecdotal point. Secondly, the two progressive journalists you mention as having this mass growth would seem to go against the impression of Substack being a haven for people who value free speech. Those two sure don’t! Are we to believe that they moved here and with them suddenly came an onslaught of progressives hell bent on limiting speech? Is it a plot or bots to create a false impression in a desperate attempt to save the MSM. If it is, we might see similar efforts mirrored on X, Rumble and elsewhere.

Now granted, I don’t frequent progressive writers here, so my view is skewed. Maybe something to consider would be the overall demographics of Substack’s overall readership and distribution of readers among the writers, if they can be categorized and how it’s changed over time.

I wonder if they’d provide that information …

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