Why Substack Metrics Matter
And a public thank you to the Brownstone Institute.
I continue to perform analysis of my Substack subscriber metrics for three primary reasons:
1. Nobody else is doing this.*
2. These metrics tell me how much money I’m making from my full-time job, which is a “Substack author.”
If I’m making less money than I used to and have little prospects of increasing this revenue stream, I might have to apply for a menial labor job, which is perhaps the only position available for someone with a public persona as a boat-rocker or someone who doesn’t “follow the herd” - which, apparently, is now a prerequisite for most managerial positions.
3. Trends for “contrarian” Substack authors are very important as Substack is still the primary content forum that allows writers who question the authorized narrative to engage in said skepticism … Also, it’s important to the world to have as many people as possible who make their living challenging the authorities.
(*Several other Substack authors have noted changes in their Substack subscriber trends. However, I’m not aware of any author who provides the specific numbers - and in-depth analysis - that I routinely share with readers.)
***
With this prologue completed, I get to the gist of today’s article and what prompted today’s latest analysis.
This morning Substack sent me an email that told me how “Bill Rice, Jr.’s Newsletter” performed in the month of November.
According to this dispatch, I added 40 total subscribers in November, including one (1) new paid subscriber.
This email prompted me to go back and see how many total and paid subscribers I added in the same month in 2022 - when my Substack had been in existence only six weeks.
In November 2022, I added 314 total subscribers and nine (9) paid subscribers.
So with two years’ experience as a Substack author, my metric of “total subscribers added” had plummeted by 274 - a decline of 87.26 percent.
My “paid subscribers added” dropped from nine in November 2022 to one in November 2024.
I also examined my metrics from December 2022, which was a great month for my new Substack venture.
Two years ago, in one month, I added 881 (!) total subscribers, including 43 new paid subscribers. For context, in 2024, it took me seven months to add 881 subscribers.
In the last seven months, I have added a grand total of seven new paid subscribers. For more context, in the first seven months of publishing a Substack newsletter, I generated 105 new paid subscribers (15 times the number I generated in the first seven months of this year).
In one month (December 2022), I added 6 times as many paid subscribers than I’ve added in the last seven months.
These metrics, to me, meet the definition of a “disturbing trend.”
What this means to you, the reader, and me, ‘the content provider’ …
To my subscribers and readers, this probably means absolutely nothing. In a free country, citizens are free to subscribe - or not subscribe - to any service they want for whatever reasons resonate with them.
However, for me - a Substack author - my own recent subscriber trends reinforce my conviction that it’s (now) probably impossible to make a living as a full-time writer on Substack.
At one time - based on the trends and metrics of my first year as a Substack author - I thought I’d reach 1,000 paid subscribers by the end of 2025.
As I’ve written several times, 1,000 paid subscribers is the magic number/metric for someone like me as this translates to approximately $45,000 in annual (net) revenue. If your wife has a school teacher salary (like mine), a family of four can make a decent living with these combined revenue streams.
However, as I wrote several months ago, my revised metrics told me it might take me nine more years to reach 1,000 paid subscribers.
This month’s data tells me it will take me 58 years to reach 1,000 paid subscribers (one new paid subscription a month x 700 months would allow me to reach this goal).
Enter the work-around …
As I’ve also written several times, life is a never-ending series of work-arounds.
My work-around for my stalled Substack growth at this newsletter was to create a new Substack newsletter where I don’t target “contrarian” news consumers around the world. Instead, I’m now targeting my friends and neighbors in my hometown of Troy, Alabama.
At the end of October, I debuted the Troy Citizen Substack, which focuses on local history and local human interest stories. At this site, I lay off the controversial or “taboo” content and try to get as many local names and faces into dispatches which might interest local readers.
I’m sure astute readers have picked up on the irony of what I’m trying to accomplish.
I’ve concluded the only way I can continue writing taboo essays and original taboo investigative journalism for a national or international market is to write stories that don’t offend anyone or make people mad at me … or make me seem like a “threat” to the Powers that Be and censors.
That is, for me at least, on Substack, it literally doesn’t pay to write the stories and essays that interest me the most.
However, I do want to keep writing these stories - and as income or money actually matter in this world - one has to go where the money is - which might be “local” (non-controversial) content.
The good news is that in the last week of October and the four weeks of November, my new Substack venture netted me 64 paid subscribers.
(I actually reached 64 paid subscribers in six weeks with the Troy Citizen, while it took me approximately nine weeks to reach this number with my “national” Substack.)
Why the trend reversal?
Since I’ve written so many articles about my Substack metrics, I’ve received excellent feedback from readers and subscribers, opining on “what’s going on here” or “what’s changed.”
The reader consensus is that Substack has become over-saturated with authors … or that the forum’s fans can’t possibly read even a small portion of the “Stacks” they subscribe to. Put differently, most Substack readers are dramatically cutting back on Substack subscriptions - free and paid.
This explanation rings true as it jibes with my own experience as a Substack reader. That is, I too - as an inflation work-around - have had to cut back on free and paid subscriptions. I also don’t have time to read most of the content I receive in my daily emails.
My other theory - the paranoid one - is that “someone” might somehow be tinkering with the Substack algorithms and, perhaps, targeting writers who are hitting too close to particularly seismic scandals.
It’s possible both dynamics could be at work, at least for some Substack authors.
*** (My last article was cross-posted at least 19 times. Thank you very much to my “contrarian” Substack colleagues who have helped me reach more readers.) ***
(I have noted that the liberal or establishment crony writers- who enthusiastically support the world’s litany of bogus narratives - seem to be doing a lot better with their metrics than the “Covid contrarians” and “freedom writers.”)
It really doesn’t matter WHY my metics have hit “hard reverse” in the last eight-plus months.
Be it “Substack fatigue” or more “shadow censorship” … for my purposes, the result is the same.
Which gets me to my proverbial bottom line, which I think is important to everyone who thinks the voices of dissident authors are important.
If the vast majority of these contrarian writers and researchers can’t make a living on Substack … then Substack is not the answer we’ve all been looking for and hoping it would be.
This conclusion begs the question: What writers’ platform might better help these (important and vital) writers make a decent living?
My answer is that there’s no such option … at least at the moment.
Speaking for myself - based on my own metrics - Substack probably isn’t going to lead any on-going journalism revolution.
This is not to say Substack isn’t very important. I’m being sincere when I express my appreciation for the boost Substack’s given my writing career or any “Bill Rice, Jr” brand that may exist.
But - as things stand today based on my own subscriber metrics - it looks like the influence of Substack may have already peaked.
Post Script - A public thank you to the Brownstone Institute
Since we just celebrated Thanksgiving, I want to publicly thank Jeffrey Tucker and the Brownstone Institute which, several months ago, awarded me with a writers’ “fellowship.”
This fellowship means I receive a generous monthly stipend from Brownstone and all I have to do is keep writing the articles I write and maybe do a little more potentially-important research into subjects that are not receiving enough attention from mainstream authors.
The fellowship/stipend is for one year and has greatly alleviated financial stress that had become significant.
I mention this publicly only so supporters of Brownstone are aware that this organization is putting its money where its noble and brave principles are.
Many writers receive similar fellowships because Jeffrey Tucker realizes how important it is to our country and world to provide counterpoints to the prevailing and dubious narratives he believes threaten the future of society.
In a little over four years, Brownstone went from not existing to, arguably, being the most important voice for freedom in the world.
Brownstone’s growing roster of writers, researchers and thinkers are influencing the current debate. At Brownstone, a “search for the truth” still matters.
Those who support the mission of The Brownstone Institute should feel proud they’re members of the right team in this on-going battle.
The theme of this column might be “work-arounds.” Those who are able to financially support Brownstone are engaging in a work-around to the captured mainstream press.
For me, Brownstone has been a financial life-saver.
I am grateful that the Brownstone Institute saw something in me and was willing to help a writer who couldn’t make it on Substack revenue alone.
(Note: While my paid subscriber numbers are going down, I still have 299 paid subscribers, which is far more than 99 percent of Substack authors. I greatly appreciate this show of support and still have many high-interest stories I plan to publish in coming weeks and months.)
Not much to add here, but I've noticed that recently I'm seeing way more "failed payments". Perhaps people got new debit cards and still think they're paid subscribers?
My numbers if you're interested: 6,330 subscribers, 256 paid. (Just over 4%)
Too many fat fingers for the small screen. Credit card compromised. Takes time to get a new one. Suddenly one discovers just how many writers one has been supporting. New card sits in the incoming mail and the failed payment notices keep coming in. In the case of the national newspaper I needed to unsubscribe anyway but they don't make it easy. Too many writers without a conscience on the payroll there. Conformity is rewarded. Editors seek to toe the line. A lot of people are inclined to keep their head down until they get to the ballot box.