One of the most-watched and anticipated Congressional elections in many decades is now less than 16 hours away with the race between 7-term Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie and political newcomer Ed Gallrein.
The race has attracted record interest and political spending as it pits President Trump’s best-known Republican critic, Massie, against a candidate supported by President Trump.
While most news stories about the race focus on Massie’s support of legislation to release the “Epstein files” and Massie’s opposition to the Iran War, the “elephant in the room” is clearly Massie’s willingness to stand up to the ultra-powerful “Israel lobby.”
According to recent polling, Gallrein, a dairy farmer and retired Navy Seal, has surged in recent weeks and is now, perhaps, favored to unseat Massie, a result which would send a double message to all Washington politicians - do NOT challenge President Trump and do NOT challenge AIPAC.
On the eve of the election, I perused the Internet to highlight several issues in this heated battle.
The Elephant in the Room …
An article from USA Today published this morning, mentioned said “elephant in the room” at the bottom of a lengthy article:
“The other elephant in the campaign has been (Massie’s) criticism of the U.S. relationship with Israel …”
“Several MAGA-aligned figures have called out the administration’s cozy ties with the foreign ally, which reportedly urged Trump to launch this year’s war against Iran. Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson called the president a “slave” to Israel back in April, for instance.
“It was last summer when these ads were starting and at that point, I realized this is probably above President Trump and (Speaker) Mike Johnson’s pay grade to even stop this attack because it’s motivated by the Israeli lobby,” Massie told USA TODAY.
According to various sources, several Israeli “Super Pacs” and billionaires who support Israel have raised and spent from $10 million to $20 million to defeat the 7-term Congressman.
Also, President Trump has targeted Massie for defeat ever since 2020, when Massie voted against and criticized “a $2 trillion Covid relief package” (dubbed “Save Our Workers.”)
Among other serial pejoratives and insults, Trump has called Massie a “moron,” “a pathetic loser,” “a major sleaze bag,” “the worst person,” a “total disaster” and an “embarrassment to Kentucky” and someone who is “disloyal to Kentucky and to the United States.”
“I predict that ‘Representative’ Thomas Massie will go down as the WORST Republican Congressman in the long and fabled history of the United States Congress, even worse than Crazy Liz Chaney [sic], Cryin’ Adam Kinzinger, and Marjorie “Traitor” Brown (Remember, Green turns to Brown under stress!). They are all misfits and losers, but Massie, who is running against a great American Patriot in the Kentucky Primary, will hopefully lose BIG,” Trump wrote on March 11.
When Massie got re-married 13 months after the death of his first wife, President Trump wrote on Truth Social:
“Did Thomas Massie, sometimes referred to as Rand Paul, Jr, because of the fact that he always votes against the Republican Party, get married already??? Boy, that was quick! No wonder the polls have him at less than an 8 percent chance of winning the Election. Anyway, have a great life Thomas and (?). His wife will soon find out that she’s stuck with a LOSER!”
Since President Trump partnered with Israel and launched a surprise attack on Iran on February 28th, many prominent former supporters (such as Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens and Joe Rogan) have broken ranks with the President, who had campaigned for years on a pledge to keep America out of foreign wars.
“Influential right-wing commentator Mike Cernovich underscored another aspect of the contest in Kentucky – a showdown gauging the influence of podcasters who support Massie against campaign spending and traditional conservative media outlets.”
“Massie’s primary is an interesting one to watch because it’ll show if podcasters and social media can drive out the vote in a material way. It’s unlimited money on the other end,” Mike Cernovich wrote on X.
The election is also occurring after another prominent former Trump supporter in Congress, Marjorie Taylor Greene, announced she would not seek re-election, largely because President Trump had pledged to defeat her just like Trump has pledged to defeat Massie.
Per a common analysis, “the contest … could be a litmus test for the faultlines emerging within the Republican base, including over military interventions and support for Israel.”
“If Massie loses, every Congress member will be cowed into fear. If he wins, it’s a new media era,” said Cernovich as quoted by Al Jazeera.
Basically, tomorrow’s race might be framed as a referendum on who the nation trusts the most - Donald Trump (and the neocon policy-makers and Israel lobby) … or prominent politicians and pundits who now are willing to criticize the leader of the MAGA movement.
Gallrein seems to be closing fast …
According to a Newsweek article published the day before voting day, “The race is viewed as competitive, with recent surveys suggesting a tight contest.
“Gallrein led the latest poll from Quantus Insights. It found that 53 percent of respondents planned to support him, compared to 45 percent who planned to vote for Massie. Only 2 percent were undecided. It surveyed 908 likely voters May 11-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
This morning Newsweek reported that “GOP Representative Thomas Massie’s chances of winning against challenger Ed Gallrein … have plunged one day before the election.”
“Early Monday, Massie, who had previously been the favorite on prediction markets, slipped down to a 42 percent chance of victory on Polymarket, and 43.2 percent on Kalshi, down from 61 percent and 56 percent respectively as recently as Saturday, as in-person early voting ended.”
“… Shauna Reilly, a political scientist at Northern Kentucky University, told Newsweek that there has been a “shift” toward Gallrein in the past few weeks amid polling showing his surge and an increased ad buy in the district.”
The race could be seen as a referendum on Trump or a “cautionary tale for folks who want to oppose his agenda or stand up to him,” Reilly said. “,,, Should Massie lose, it will be clear that Trump still has a hold on the Republican Party even in the twilight of his presidency,” she said.
D. Stephen Voss, professor of political science at the University of Kentucky, previously told Newsweek that the fallout occurred as Trump “shows little tolerance for dissent, including when it’s motivated by conservative principles.”
“By the time the Epstein files started stealing headlines, Trump had targeted Massie so many times that it just made sense for the congressman to take the gloves off and fight back,” he said.
“Most (Republicans) are terrified of saying or doing anything that doesn’t 100% conform to whatever Trump’s diktats are at any given time,” Republican consultant Liz Mair said in a USA Today article.
Massie got sideways with the wrong lobbying group ….
In a recent two-hour podcast interview with Tucker Carlson, Massie said he has never been popular with AIPAC but became the organization’s No. 1 target when he made remarks in a previous Carlson interview where he noted that every member of Congress has a “minder” from different Israel lobby groups.
According to various on-line sources, approximately 90 to 95 percent of members of Congress receive campaign donations from different Jewish lobbies, primarily AIPAC.
Massie told Carlson the lobby is obviously seeking to make an example out of him as, even if he wins re-election, 90 to 95 percent of every other elected official is Washington will still support the issues important to Israel.
In other words, Massie is saying his lonely, contrarian voice in Washington probably won’t matter given how outnumbered he is by pro-Israel representatives in both parties. (However, I would argue Massie is viewed as a major threat to the Israel lobby because he is such an able communicator and gives so many interviews where he has the potential to influence large numbers of citizens.)
Massie told Carlson he could easily lose, but he owed it to his supporters to fight as hard as he could to retain his seat and not be cowed by what he views as sinister bullying tactics.
Massie has certainly gone all-in to win even with Trump and AIPAC doing the same thing to defeat him.
Both candidates have received the vast majority of their donations from people who do not live in Kentucky or Massie’s district.
A recent article said approximately 33,000 individual donors have given to Massie’s campaign. A Google AI query did not reveal how many individual donors have given to Gallrein, but as of February, Massie’s fund-raising efforts “have heavily outpaced Gallrein’s grassroots donor count.”
According to an on-line site called “AIPAC tracker,” AIPAC has spent $15 million on Gallrein per “Trackaipac” yesterday.
Just yesterday, Massie said Israel lobbying groups have poured another $3 million into Gallrein’s campaign.
Democrats are giving to both candidates …
Both candidates have made claims the other person’s campaign is being heavily funded by Democrats. (Massie became popular with many more Democrats when he co-authored legislation to release the Epstein files.)
According to The Daily Caller, as of March 20th, “Gallrein has received a number of high-value donations from people who have previously given to Democrat candidates.
“Of the 141 donors identified in the fourth quarter who contributed the $3,500 primary maximum or more to Gallrein, 120 of them had previously donated to Democrats. 112 of those donors are also high-dollar contributors to Democratic campaigns, meaning roughly 79% both maxed out to Gallrein and have made substantial donations to Democrats.”
In another interview, Massie said that, in a previous donation filing period, no Kentucky resident from three of the largest counties in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District had made a campaign contribution to his opponent.
Still, much of Gallrein’s campaign “is being underwritten by three pro-Israel billionaires with deep pockets, including GOP megadonors Paul Singer and John Paulson. Another major donor against Massie’s reelection has been Miriam Adelson, widow of the casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, who was a fierce defender of Israel” as well as President Trump’s most prominent donor and supporter.
Massie has also received more than $1 million from a PAC funded by libertarian-leaning billionaire Jeff Yass, a long-time supporter of Sen. Rand Paul, who is also from Kentucky. Yass, according to Bloomberg, is the 27th wealthiest person in the world.
Massie, who holds two degrees from MIT, is seeking his 8th term in Congress. In his recent races, he has won his Republican primary by vote totals ranging from 75 to 80 percent.
President Trump won Massie’s Congressional District by 34 percent in the 2024 Presidential Race.
Given that the election is clearly a proxy to gauge support for President Trump, “support for Israel” and the Iran War - and whether it’s possible for any prominent Republican politician to win an election after going toe-to-toe with Donald Trump - political junkies will no doubt be watching tomorrow night’s election results with intense interest.
Per my research, I also learned that Massie even endorsed and voted for President Trump in 2024. He's said that he voted for Trump's programs 90 percent of the time. So, whatever caused the two politicians to get sidways with one another happened in the last 18 months or so.
For his part, Massie says he didn't change; Trump changed.
I must say, I'm also surprised that Massie's opponent has "surged" in recent weeks - after the war on Iran and after the huge increases in gas and diesel prices (and overall inflation).
Also, I'd be lying if I didn't say that I've wondered if the ballot boxes are secure and trust-worthy. Can the "Israel lobby" manipulate the voting machines? Would they? I really don't know. It seems to me everything could be rigged these days.
Massie has also accused his opponent of employing the Joe Biden 2019-2020 strategy of campaigning in "his basement," noting that the former Navy Seal turned down eight opportunities to debate Massie. Normally, first-time candidates jump at the chance to debate a better-known incumbent, said Massie.
It seems that Massie's opponent is going to let his TV commercials speak for him. I'm in Alabama, but apparently every TV commercial in Kentucky (and neighboring states of Ohio an Indiana) have been paid for by both campaigns or their Super Pacs.