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Bill Rice, Jr.'s avatar

The real IFR should be a big-deal even today. For its part, the CDC says the first Covid case in America was Jan. 19, 2020 (a man who had returned from Wuhan). In a CDC press conference from May 29, 2020, the CDC said "community spread" in America probably began in some places in mid to late February .

This doesn't make sense to me either. By the end of March - about 40 days after the CDC said community spread started, New York City was experiencing thousands of "Covid deaths." By the end of April, NY City had experienced more than 10,000 extra deaths - all attributed to Covid.

It takes, on average, 21 days to contract and then die from Covid. So if the big spike in NY City deaths was April 15th, most of the people who died on that day had been infected 21 days earlier - which would be the last week of March. Which would be 10 days after lockdowns were implemented to prevent spread.

Somehow deaths and cases went from zero in mid to late February to tens of thousands in a period of about 35 to 60 days in NY City.

This didn't happen in Wuhan, which is almost as large a city as NYC and just as densely-packed.

By the end of January in China, there had only been 50 to 200 deaths in the entire country, according to China officials. When did virus spread begin in China or Wuhan? Why so few deaths in this city and so many in NY City?

What was the IFR for Covid by January 30th in China? We don't know that either, but it was apparently a far less lethal virus in China than in America for some unknown reason.

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Bill Rice, Jr.'s avatar

My theory, like most I'm sure, is that the PCR tests are terrible and a major fraud and were used to inflate Covid cases (when they were finally widely administered, which was AFTER the lockdowns).

My question is how reliable or good are the antibody tests? It's the people who tested positive via the antibody tests that provide perhaps the main reason I think "early spread" happened. But this question occurs to me: If officials wanted to conceal all evidence of "early spread," why not just rig all the antibody tests so none of them produced any positives?

My working theory is that the "authorized" tests (from government cronies like Quest Labs or Abbott) probably do use cutoff values that will produce fewer positive results. It's the non-authorized tests used by a few hospitals and private labs that produced a greater percentage of positives. These tests, of course, were labelled as "junk" tests.

I also think antibodies probably do fade to undetectable levels in many people after two or three months (numerous studies support this view). This would mean that people that started getting antibody tests in late April or May 2020 - but who had Covid symptoms many months earlier - might be expected to test "negative" even if the tests were legit.

But, for some reason, this was not the case with everyone.

Also, hardly anyone could get an antibody test before the end of April 2020, which makes it even more likely there would NOT be many people who tested positive for antibodies. For the vast majority of Americans, the PCR tests and the antibody tests were both delayed. I'm one of the few writers who has pointed this out. I think this was probably intentional .... to conceal evidence of early spread.

As I hope my articles have shown, compelling evidence of early spread is kryptonite to the authorized narrative. I do think certain officials would (and did) do everything they could to limit this evidence. However, there's still enough antibody evidence to make me confident many people were already infected by the end of 2019.

And if a few people in a few towns were infected .... many people would have quickly become infected in these towns .... because the virus IS/was very contagious.

As I have also pointed out ad nauseum, the last thing officials would want to do is seriously investigate - and then "confirm" - any of these possible early cases.

The CDC didn't even bother to interview any of the 39 people who tested positive for antibodies in the Red Cross blood study - which was published 11 1/2 months after those people first gave blood.

I've seen zero evidence any officials were serious about investigating possible early cases. This is probably my greatest "red flag." Officials did not do things they could have and should have easily done.

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