The Covid IFR percentage was a scandalous lie

But this bogus number ramped up the Fear Factor and made Americans compliant ‘sheeple.’ I also think ‘early spread’ - if proven - would detonate the all-important ‘deadly virus’ narrative.

If the authorities said 1-in-29 people who became a “case” would die from Covid (which they did), we should have known the real figure for most healthy Americans was probably 1-in-29,000. An Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 3.4 percent equates to 1-in-29 people who become infected later dying.

It took a while, but I can now express my key take-away from Covid via one question: How many people had already contracted the novel coronavirus by mid-February 2020?

If the answer is “many millions,” this means the virus is … not “deadly.”

And if the virus was not deadly, there was really no reason to do anything to “fight” said virus, as virtually nobody should have had any worries about dying from this virus.

This conclusion also prompts one to ask another uncomfortable question: If this virus wasn’t killing most people who allegedly died from (or “with”) this virus, what did kill the huge numbers of people who died after April 2020?

The reason I can confidently state this virus was not deadly is because if the virus was deadly, we would have seen a spike in all-cause deaths by March 15, 2020 (roughly the start date of lockdowns to “control virus spread.”)

As mortality statistics conclusively prove, there was no spike in all-cause deaths anywhere in the world before March 1 or March 15th.

I maintain that the only reason public health officials and elected governors and presidents could arguably impose draconian lockdowns to fight a virus is if experts (we could actually trust) knew that said virus was unusually deadly.

Alas, per my “early spread” hypothesis, I believe these experts should have already known this virus wasn’t any more deadly than the seasonal flu. 

We also know that, before Covid, no government had ever turned the world upside down to fight the flu (even the Spanish Flu).

In my opinion, more people need to remember the justification for the lockdowns - which also became the justification for mandatory or coerced Covid “vaccines,” shots that have almost-certainly killed far more people than the virus proper. 

The justification for the lockdowns (and 40 other “virus-mitigation” mandates) wasn’t that there were X millions of PCR-confirmed “cases.” The justification was that this was an unusually “deadly” virus - a pandemic the likes the world had never seen (except for maybe The Spanish Flu or the Bubonic Plague of the 1600s).

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In a recent article, researchers and Substack authors Martin Neil and Norman Fenton reminded the public what we were told about this virus in the early weeks and months of the official pandemic. 

What we were told “from China” is that the “case fatality rate” for this novel new virus was 3.4 percent (some studies said this percentage was even higher, but I’ll use the 3.4 percentage).

3.4 percent! 

If this was true and if this virus was as contagious as we were told, everyone in the world probably would need to stay hidden under their kitchen table for a couple of months if not years.

What this number told us is that approximately 1-in-29 people who develop or acquire a “case” of Covid will die because of this.

Using my school teacher wife to frame this IFR number …

My wife is a high school teacher and her classes have about 30 students. A Covid IFR or CFR of 3.4 percent would mean that one student in each one of her four classes would have died by now if all 30 students at some point acquired the virus that causes a “case” of Covid.

By February 2, 2024, I’d estimate almost all of her students have had a “case” of Covid. However,  not one of the 360 or so students she’s taught in the last three years has died from Covid. In fact, no student (or teacher) in my county of 33,000 people has died from Covid.

From this data set, we know that the CFR - or its cousin, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) - is actually 0.0000 percent …. At least for the 5,000 or so young people who were students in Pike County, Alabama between March 2020 and today.

Of course, even the experts now say the IFR or CFR is nothing close to 3.4 percent. Authors Neil and Fenton now say a more reasonable or accepted IFR is 0.3 to 0.5 percent.

But with this article, I’m not interested in today’s “revised” CFR or IFR. I’m interested in the IFR and CFR that was used to scare the living daylights out of every citizen on the planet in mid-March 2020.

The goal of today’s dispatch is to remind readers that our experts’ original CFR was (to quote a famous line from The Princess Bride) … “Inconceivable!” Or preposterous.

The question I hope citizens don’t forget is why did all the experts get away with telling us that 1-in-29 people who became a Covid “case” would be dead by now?

How many people did you personally know who died “from Covid?”

A common question all of us have probably asked is how many people did we personally know who, reportedly, died from Covid?

My answer to this question is three people … in four years (48 months).

I personally knew three people - all ladies - who I’ve been told died from Covid. One was 70 when she died, one 80 and one was 81.

Interestingly, all three died in the winter of 2020-2021 when there was a huge uptick in “Covid cases” and “Covid deaths.”  Oddly, this would be the second year of Covid. 

Personally, I wonder if all three ladies had recently received their annual flu shot and if that might have had something to do with the eye-opening spike in Covid deaths between November 2020 and February 2021. I also wonder if the treatment they received in the hospital might have explained their deaths.

That is, I’m not 100-percent convinced any of these very fine and nice ladies really died “from Covid.” Still, I can’t say they didn’t either. Maybe one or all three really did die from Covid and Covid alone.

Still, in four years, I personally knew, at the most, only three people who reportedly died from Covid. 

The Covid IFR from people I know or knew …

Thinking about this makes me wonder how many people I actually know or had conversations with and can remember their names. In my life of 57 years, I would say I personally know or knew at least 3,000 people. (I know a lot of people, probably because I worked at community newspapers for so long and was constantly meeting and interacting with a cross-section of my community).

I don’t know how many of these 3,000 people would have developed a case of Covid in four years - probably at least 80 percent, which would be 2,400 of my friends or acquaintances.

This would mean the CFR from Covid for people I know (assuming these friends really died “from Covid”) is approximately 1-in-800. This fraction equates to an IFR of 0.125 percent - which is roughly the same as the IFR for the flu (said to be 0.100 percent). That is, it’s not 3.4 percent.

The IFR for people I personally know/knew who died from Covid under the age of 70 is …. 0.000 percent.

The IFR is/was different in different countries …

In the above-referenced article by Neil and Fenton, the authors point out that the IFR for Covid  was all over the board, depending on what country’s data they examined.

“For Santa Clara and Chelsea, both in the USA, the most likely IFR values are 0.3–0.4%. Kobe, Japan is very unusual in comparison with the others with values an order of magnitude less than the others at, 0.001%. The IFR for Spain is centred around 1%. England and Wales lie between Spain and the USA/German values with an IFR around 0.8%.”

The authors then ask a great question (which they’re probably not supposed to ask and which probably got their writing banned from certain platforms and medical journals):

“If we assume that there was a highly transmittable virus travelling around the globe, following some natural transmission pattern, we should not expect to see such disparities in seroprevalence between neighbouring countries, and neither would we expect to see such dramatically different levels of community spread of the virus across countries. Why would Germany be so different from the UK and Spain? Why would Japan be completely different from everywhere else?”

Exactly. Why is/was the IFR in Japan 0.001 percent? Is the virus far less lethal in Japan? If so, how and why? Are Japanese citizens tougher or their hospitals and doctors that much better than the rest of the world?

Circling back to early spread and

how this would detonate the official narrative …

Now let’s go back to the original CFR fear percentage of 3.4 percent. This is the headline that terrified everyone and made 80 percent of the world population compliant sheep. 

(Whatever the CDC told people to do - “stand on your head and gargle water for 90 seconds every three hours” - most people would have probably done … to avoid a 1-in-29 chance of death).

To be conservative, let’s agree the 3.4 percent mortality figure is far too high and say it was “only” 1 percent (which was also a popular IFR percentage for many months).

One (1) percent is still 1-in-100 people who would die once they contracted this virus.

Here, I’m going to write (again) about my taboo “early spread” hypothesis.

If 10 million Americans had been infected by this virus by, say, mid-February, 2020 and the IFR was 1 percent, this would mean 100,000 Americans would have died by mid-March …. before the lockdowns were ordered to “to save lives.”

(Aside: See Reader Comments for four reasons I think at least 10 million Americans had already been infected by this virus by the lockdown dates.)

According to multiple studies, the time from onset of Covid symptoms to death is, on average, 24 days. This means anyone infected by Feb. 15, 2020 would have had plenty of time to die by March 10, 2020 … and thus show up in later mortality statistics.

Furthermore, if 100,000 “extra” Americans (out of the 10 million I believe had already contracted the virus) later died, this huge number of deaths would not be spread out over 12 months, but bundled in a period of a couple of months. Such a massive number of deaths in a few months would have been impossible to “miss.” At least in my opinion.

Again, the mortality figures in America show no spike of “excess” deaths occurred between November 2019 and the second week of March 2020.

Why early spread is a thermo-nuclear topic …

A few people have asked me why my “early spread” theory is so taboo or off-limits to real investigation. Here, I believe, is our answer.

If early spread was “confirmed” and people agreed with my assumption that at least 10 million people had already been infected by, say, mid-February 2020, we should have seen at least 100,000 extra deaths in America (or 340,000 extra deaths if the IFR was 3.4 percent) before the lockdowns were ordered.

Again, for emphasis, “early spread” shows the novel coronavirus was NOT “deadly.” If the virus wasn’t deadly, every “mitigation” recommendation/mandate was completely unnecessary.

In thinking about why so many people reject or ignore my hypothesis, the best answer I can come up with is that most people think there’s no way at least 10 million Americans had already been infected with this virus.

Or, put it this way: If someone agrees America had at least 10 million “prior cases” before the lockdowns, that same person would have to ask, “Well, where are the 100,000 Covid deaths we should have already seen?”

In one sense, “10 million previously-infected Americans” sounds like a huge number. However, if one assumes (like I do) that virus spread was already happening by November 1st, 2019, those 10 million cases would have occurred over at least four months (November, December, January and February). 

On average, that’s just 2.5 million “new cases” every month  … which would mean less than 1 percent of the U.S. population was being infected every month (the U.S. population in 2020 was approximately 330 million). 

Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised if one day we learn that “10 million” previously-infected people (before the lockdowns) is a major under-estimate.

The reason I think public health officials don’t want to seriously investigate “early spread” is because, if they did, they would have to quantify how many Americans they think had already been infected.

If credible researchers did this - and then applied their IFR percentage to their denominator (aggregate cases) - everyone would know this huge number of people had not died. The entire “deadly virus” narrative would be shown to be a massive lie.

This, in turn, would show that our trusted public health officials … should not be trusted.

So I get why public health officials never sought to quantify, investigate or “confirm” the number of Americans who’d probably already been infected by early March 2020. 

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What I still don’t understand is why the “watchdog” press didn’t figure this out and ask some of these questions back in the early days of Covid.

My only answer to this question is that the “watchdog press” is completely captured and also doesn’t want the public to know the real truth. Editors and publishers in the establishment press aren’t going to assign any team of reporters to investigate the possibility of “early spread” and all the implications that flow from this hypothesis.

As it turns out, the narrative that this was a very deadly virus was the key to the entire Faux Pandemic Operation.  “Early spread” - if quantified and proven - would detonate this faux narrative.