Let’s Hope Substack’s Never Captured
But if the recent plunge in my ‘Open Rate’ is being experienced by other newsletter authors, this can’t be a good trend.
What’s happening in the world right now is a battle’s being fought between those who value the truth and those who want to propagate and profit from lies.
Not to be melodramatic, but the fate of civilization will probably be determined by what side prevails in this existential battle, which many citizens now view as a war between Good and Evil.
Substack is very important in this battle as it provides the most prominent writers’ platform where dangerous and false narratives can be challenged and debunked.
Because of this, I’m acutely interested in the question of whether Substack’s influence is growing, staying the same or declining.
I’ve also always thought, at some point, Substack would come under attack from the institutions that are bankrolling and supporting the massive growth of the Censorship Industrial Complex (CIC). In my opinion, the CIC exists to stifle dissent and ensure that those who are destroying society will have even more power and control in the future.
So I’ve always been on the lookout for anecdotes or data that might suggest a concerted effort has begun to suppress the influence of Substack’s freedom-defending and truth-seeking writers and thinkers.
With this overview provided, one of the most significant metrics in today’s media world might be the growth and success of independent, narrative-challenging authors on Substack.
My report from the field …
I don’t know what’s happening to other Substack authors, but I can report from my little piece of this battlefield that at least one of my key Substack metrics is troubling.
This metric is my Open Rate, which has plummeted in recent months.
The Open Rate is simply the percentage of a Substack author’s subscribers who receive author emails who open the email (and presumably read our articles).
If this rate is going up or holding steady, the author is achieving his or her main goal of attracting readers. However, if this percentage is going down, the author’s long-term viability on this platform might be in jeopardy.
In the Big Picture, I wonder if Substack’s popularity might have already peaked, at least among the group of writers I care the most about - the contrarian “freedom” writers who are challenging the “authorized” (and false) narratives.
In a nutshell, my Open rate averaged about 42.4 percent in the first year of my Substack business. In the last month, this rate was 36.6 percent. This is a gross decline of 5.8 percent, but it actually means readership among my subscribers has decreased by 13.7 percent.
What’s up with this?
Several reasons might explain this precipitous and recent sudden drop.
Perhaps I’ve simply lost my Mojo as a writer. Many subscribers, who for 12 months once read my articles, might no longer be interested in my commentary and journalism.
I’m biased, but I don’t think the quality or originality of my writing is any different in the last two months than it was in my first 12 months, but the “market” is the judge of this so maybe I’m wrong.
A more-likely possibility is that my Open Rate plummeted because Substack is growing rapidly and is more popular than ever. Put simply, more people are subscribing to more Substack authors which means these readers simply can’t read all the Substacks they’ve subscribed to.
I’m often struck by how many of my new subscribers subscribe to hundreds of other Substacks. Very few Substack readers only subscribe to four or five other Substacks.
Common sense tells me I’m competing for “reads” with a cadre of quality writers. I also know every person has only so many minutes or hours a day where they’re going to read Substack articles.
I’d be very curious to hear from other Substack authors to see if their Open rates are also significantly lower than they once were.
Yet another possibility that might explain the plunging Open Rate is if readers are finally getting burned out on the main topic I write about - Contrarian Covid issues.
After all, it’s now been four years since the most significant event of our times happened and maybe more people are tired of “All-Covid-All-the-Time.”
(I would note that not all of my articles are about Covid topics. I know that in the future I’ll never run out of important non-Covid topics to write about, subjects that are also off-limits to our captured “watchdog” press).
Still, “Covid fatigue” could explain some of the decline in readership for myself and, perhaps, other Substack authors who came to alternative media prominence focussing on this same subject.
Are the Bad Guys finally coming after Substack?
I must admit I’ve also wondered if some of my Substack metrics are heading in the wrong direction because of a concerted, surreptitious effort to target certain writers who have been labelled threats to the authorized narratives.
Is it possible sinister forces might be trying to censor or otherwise meddle with dissident journalistic voices? I know many will dismiss this as rank paranoia as the years 2020-2024 have actually been the golden age of free speech and open debate in America. (A little sarcastic humor for my readers).
At the moment, I do not believe the founders of Substack, who I consider heroic historic figures, “have gone wobbly” and abandoned the free speech principles that allowed this platform to quickly grow to more than 35 million readers.
However, I have noted that, for some reason, other social media companies have made hiring armies of former CIA, FBI and military intelligence officials a priority.
In my mind, such psy-op veterans probably would be aware of all kinds of dirty tricks that could harpoon the reach and influence of those of us who are trying to expose their ilk and scuttle the agendas of the Davos and Bill Gates’ crowd.
For example, my subscriber growth rate - except for when I have a subscription drive - has also dropped precipitously. Some of my readers have told me that my emails now go to their spam accounts. I know some people, who I thought had paid for a subscription, had these payments cancelled by their bank or Substack’s payment processor.
Basically, my thought is if someone wanted to slow or kill the growth of dissident writers, they could probably come up with numerous ways to accomplish this goal without Substack having anything to do with this.
But, again, I admit this might just be good old-fashioned paranoia on my part.
My Open Rate examples from different months …
To illustrate why my “Spider Sense” has been activated, I’ll simply post the Open Rates from my last 15 articles. I’ll then post the Open Rates from articles published seven months ago.
The Open Rates of my last 15 articles (the numbers are percentages of subscribers who opened the articles): 35, 36, 36, 37, 34, 37, 38, 36, 40, 38, 36, 35, 37 and 36 percent.
My Open Rate for articles published between yesterday and January 30th was 36.6 percent.
For the 14 articles I published between January 4th and January 25th, my Open Rate was 38.93 percent.
This means my Open Rate fell by 2.33 gross points in less than a month, which is a 6 percent decline (38.93 percent down to 36.6 percent).
For context, my average Open Rate from 25 articles published between May 3rd, 2023 and July 2nd, 2023 was 42.08 percent.
Between the months of May and June 20203, my Open Rate did not change (42.08 percent in May and 42.07 percent in June). Contrast this to a 6-percent plunge between January and February of this year (38.93 percent in January down to 36.6 percent in February).
My Open Rate percentages from 12 articles published May 3rd to early June of 2023 were: 43, 47, 48, 41, 42, 38, 42, 43, 38, 40, 41, 42.
Comment: Only two articles had an open rate under 40 percent. In February of this year, no article I wrote had an open rate of more than 40 percent.
Take-away: My Open Rate has declined significantly, but this decline is also apparently accelerating. If these disturbing trends continue, in a month or two, only 1/3 of my articles will be opened by my subscribers.
There’s always a work-around and good news …
The above mentioned, my total readership levels are not bad at all. As I noted in my recent “Subscription Drive” article, for a recent 30-day period I actually averaged almost 8,900 readers per article.
However, since my Open Rate is plunging, the vast majority of my readers are actually not my regular subscribers. (A typical recent article of mine is read by approximately 1,800 subscribers but approximately 4,900 total readers).
Three reasons account for this: 1) Several of my articles were picked up by Citizen Free Press, which always significantly inflates my “reads”; 2) My articles are being shared at other Substacks by readers (thank you!) and 3) I often plug my articles at other Substack sites.
At the moment, I have 5,655 total subscribers. The below examples show how many READERS I would have at two different Open Rates. The first rate is what was common my first year on Substack. The second rate is what my last story generated.
5655 subscribers x Open Rate of 42.4 percent = 2,398 readers
5655 subscribers x Open Rate of 35 percent = 1,979 readers
Difference: 419 readers.
Bottom line for me: If my Open Rate is declining, I better be picking up readers through other methods. Another way to express this is I would have many more readers (and probably more paid subscribers and thus income) if my Open Rate had not decreased by approximately 13 percent, with, alarmingly, most of this decrease in the last three months.
What does the above matter to you, the reader?
Maybe nothing.
However, if many Sustack authors are experiencing the same decline in their Open Rate, this does not bode well for their Substack writing businesses nor is it a positive trend for the company Substack. I also think most of my Substack readers are interested in trends affecting Substack for the same reasons I’m interested in this topic.
If Substack loses its Mojo as an antidote to the captured mainstream press, it will be advantage Big Brother in our on-going battle between Good and Evil.
I actually think the quality and originality of my journalism and commentary has improved in recent months compared to when I started this Substack. This is because I never stop doing research or thinking about the topics I write about. I think I am now connecting more dots and writing more important pieces than I was when I started this newsletter.
The astute Reader Comments I read every day have also enhanced my education and thinking.
In my last subscription drive article, I think I mentioned the fact that an average salaried journalist at a legacy/captured mainstream media news organization must make at least $55,000/year (plus benefits). Journalists don't get paid much, but they still get paid many times more than even the most successful Substack authors who are trying to debunk their propaganda.
But, this point made, I know every mainstream journalist these days must be worried to death about losing their jobs because they know their industry is "Dead Man Walking" and they've seen all the pink slips their former colleagues have gotten in recent years.
Perversely, this probably makes the few remaining journalists more eager to write BS to protect the corrupt establishment ... because they KNOW if they don't do this they are going to instantly lose their job ... and they know they won't be able to get another one in that field.
So the mainstream journalists have even a greater incentive to write stories that protect the authorized narratives (and not go against the "pack" or "herd").