Flu Season of 2019-2020 was one of worst in decades

Why don’t virus experts recognize what might have been obvious evidence of early Covid?

If you felt like this any time between November 2019 and early March 2020, you too might have had “early Covid.” The numbers of people who had ILI symptoms in these months were NOT normal for a typical flu season.

Why I think this article is important …

In searching for evidence that supports the “early-spread” hypothesis, I’m simply looking for evidence that many people experienced Covid-like symptoms months before the virus was supposed to exist in America.  If this number was smaller or no different than previous flu seasons, my “early spread” hypothesis would face a significant logical hurdle. 

However, as I show in today’s article, voluminous evidence supports my hypothesis. In my opinion, data presented below definitively proves that far more people than normal experienced ILI/Covid symptoms in the weeks and months before Covid was supposed to exist in America.

(See also an earlier article on ILI evidence that I wrote in June).

If many more people experienced Covid (or ILI) symptoms in the fall and winter of 2019-2020, this could qualify as compelling  evidence a highly-contagious new virus was being transmitted person-to-person across America and the world.

As I pointed out in my most-recent article, the key point is that this reportedly “novel” virus was NOT lethal … thus a real public health “emergency” never existed.

I stipulate that every person who thinks he might have had Covid before March 2020 did NOT have Covid.  However, if only 10, 20 or 30 percent of people who thinks this did, in fact, have Covid, this cumulative figure would be immense.

Highlights of ILI evidence presented in this article

• ILI began earlier and was at elevated levels (far above the historic or expected “baseline” figures) for many more weeks than all flu seasons monitored by the CDC via  ILI reports from its “surveillance network” of healthcare providers.

• Virtually every state in America reported ILI levels that were geographically “widespread” with ILI “activity” at the highest levels.

• Elevated ILI figures of 12 to 16 percent were recorded in states (or regions of states) including Texas (16 percent), Alabama, Georgia, California and New York among other states.

• The number of flu tests administered in 2019-2020 was massively higher than in previous flu seasons, including the severe flu season of 2017-2018. The fact that many more people felt sick enough to go to the doctor and get flu tests might be the most compelling evidence of “early spread” presented in this document.

• In December 2019 and January 2020, numerous public health officials and virus experts, including Anthony Fauci, commented on the severe and abnormal flu season of 2019-2020. This prompts this question: Why didn’t any of these officials at least consider the possibility Covid had been spreading in the United States for many months?

Comment about the length of this article …

I decided to go ahead and publish a lengthy article because ILI evidence is very important to my “early spread” hypothesis. I’ve also received comments from a few Covid writers who question my assertion that the 2019-2020 flu season was actually one of the most severe and widespread in many decades. My hope is that this article will at least show that the 2019-2020 “flu season” was not “normal” or “typical.”

In numerous articles, I’ve presented undeniable evidence public health officials ignored and/or refused to investigate likely early cases among a cohort that tested positive for Covid antibodies and had these antibodies in the year 2019. 

This article postulates that the same public health officials ignored the copious and overwhelming evidence that tens of millions of people were sick with Covid/ILI symptoms before the lockdowns.

The ILI evidence presented in this article is, largely, presented chronologically,  I tried to use official ILI reports and media coverage from a cross-section of U.S. states to show the duration and geographic spread of ILI that began in October 2019.

Media reports from mid-November 2019 …

ILI activity was already at the highest level (red) by Nov. 17-23, 2019 in five Southern states. At least five other states and Puerto Rico were at the next to highest level (dark orange).

Here’s the same ‘Activity Level’ ILI map approximately 110 days later. Is this a picture of a spreading novel virus?

Nov. 15, 2019 - CNN - The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told doctors on a conference call this week that the United States is seeing more flu than is typical for this time of year.

"Influenza is off to an early start," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University who was on the CDC call.

Thirty states are seeing flu activity -- for this time of year, that's the most states in a decade. Three states, California, Louisiana and Maryland, are seeing widespread activity, while seven states are seeing regional activity: Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, Tennessee and Texas.

MY Comment: By mid-November, flu activity was already “widespread” in three states - but not contiguous states - these states were on the far west coast (California), in the South (Louisiana) and on the east coast (Maryland)

“… Looking at the United States as a whole, CDC data shows more flu activity from September 29 to November 9 than in the same time period for six other flu seasons that CDC used as a comparison. Only one season in the comparison had more activity at this time of year: the unusually severe 2009 pandemic flu season that broke records.

The Southeast has been hit particularly hard, with 12 states in the region showing flu activity.

From CNBC on Dec. 6, 2019 ….

• The U.S. winter flu season is off to its earliest start in more than 15 years.

• An early barrage of illness in the South has begun to spread more broadly

• Some experts think the early start may mean a lot of suffering is in store …

“…. The last flu season to rev up this early was in 2003-2004 — a bad one.”

Louisiana was ‘hit hard” in October 2019 ….

“… Louisiana was the first state to really get hit hard, with doctors there saying they began seeing large numbers of flu-like illnesses in October.

“Children’s Hospital New Orleans has already seen more flu cases this fall than it saw all of last winter, said Dr. Toni Gross, the hospital’s chief of emergency medicine. Last month was the busiest ever at the hospital’s emergency department. Officials had to set up a triage system and add extra shifts, Gross said.

“… Health officials tend to consider a flu season to be officially underway when — for at least three weeks in a row — a significant percentage of U.S. doctor’s office visits are due to flu-like illnesses. That’s now happened, CDC officials said this week.

“… The most intense patient traffic had been occurring in a six states stretching from Texas to Georgia. But in new numbers released Friday, CDC officials said the number of states with intense activity rose last week to 12. Flu is widespread in 16 states,

“… Said Dave Osthus, a statistician who does flu forecasting at Los Alamos National Laboratory. “This could be a precursor to something pretty bad. But we don’t know,” he said.

Gross is pessimistic. “I, personally, am preparing for the worst,” she said.

Time magazine reports 2019-2020 season ‘on track to be especially severe;’ article notes Anthony Fauci was aware of this

January 4, 2020 -  The current flu season is on track to be one of the worst in years, Director of the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNN.

CNN reports that Fauci says the 2019-2020 flu season is on track to be as severe as the 2017-2018 season, which was the deadliest in at least a decade.

“The initial indicators indicate this is not going to be a good season — this is going to be a bad season,” Fauci told CNN.

My comment/question: Why didn’t public health officials ever consider the possibility that this intense and abnormal flu season could be evidence the novel coronavirus was already spreading in America by the latter months of 2019?

“The 2018-2019 season was the longest in a decade, lasting more than 21 weeks, per the CDC.

My comment: The 2019-2020 season was longer, lasting at least 23 weeks. This flu season produced elevated ILI numbers (above the expected baseline) longer than any other flu season.

“The CDC also said on Friday that 34 states and Washington D.C., New York City and Puerto Rico are all experiencing “high flu activity.”

Florida officials say 2019-2020 season could be worse than the terrible 2017-2018 season ….

“The 2017-2018 flu season was the worst Florida had seen in a decade. DeCastro said indications are that this year could break the record. “The number of cases has peaked early so they're considering this somewhat of a crisis this year,” said DeCastro.

An AP article from early December 2019 …

Dec. 8, 2019 - WASHINGTON — Citing health officials, the Associated Press is reporting that the winter flu season in the U.S. is starting at its earliest point in over 15 years. Officials say there is a chance this flu season could peak much earlier than usual. According to health experts, the last flu season that started this early was from 2003-2004, and it was bad. 

Most of the high intensity patient reports have come from six southern states, from Texas to Georgia, CDC numbers show … Flu season usually hits its height in February, so some doctors are preparing for the worst. 

December - Washington state - flu ramps up early

ILI patients in Washington State in December 2019 and January 2020 numbered at least 20,000 more than the peaks of previous flu seasons.

Dec. 16, 2019 (Seattle Times) - This flu season is taking off sooner than usual, with more cases than have typically been reported by this point in the year. This trend holds true for Washington state and the country as a whole, but the numbers are worse in Washington than in most other states.

In the first week of December, 3.2% of doctor visits nationwide were from people with an influenza-like illness, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The national baseline — which uses data from the previous three seasons — is 2.4%, and the country has been at or above that number for the past five weeks. At this time last year, the rate was just below 2.4%.

Washington is one of a handful of places in the U.S. with particularly high flu activity, along with Nebraska, Puerto Rico and a swath of Southern states stretching from Texas to Virginia, according to the CDC.

In Washington, 4.4% of doctor visits were from people with a flu-like illness — far above the state’s 1.5% baseline.

An NFL anecdote:

“The flu has already had an impact on at least one group of high-profile locals: the Seattle Seahawks … Earlier this month, it felled wide receivers Tyler Lockett and David Moore and about eight other members of the team. Defensive end Jadeveon Clowney caught the bug this week.

My comment: That’s at least 11 (of 53) members of one NFL team. Did some of these players perhaps have “early Covid?”

More from Washington - January 7, 2020 … 

3 weeks later, flu is still very bad

OLYMPIA - January 7, 2020  — At least 21 people in Washington state have died of the flu so far this season, including two children who died, the state Department of Health reports.

…. By this time in the previous flu season — the end of December 2018 — nine people in Washington state had died of flu.

The latest update from health officials says flu activity in the state is elevated, with more than 1,800 patients reporting flu-like systems during the last week of December alone ….

Ten outbreaks of flu-like sickness also were reported at long-term-care facilities in the state in the 2019-2020 season, as of Dec. 28.

Dec. 19, 2019 - North Carolina

Charlotte News Observer - In their latest report, health officials described the state’s flu activity as “widespread.” Citing flu concerns, the Duke University Health System will restrict visitors at its hospitals, clinics and surgery centers starting Friday, according to ABC11, The News & Observer’s media partner.

December 2019 - Flu arrives early in Pennsylvania 

Note: The link from this source, communityhealthclinic.org, no longer comes up. However, I saved the headline from this December 2019 article because it shows yet another state were the flu arrived early in America, Headline: “Flu arrives early in Pennsylvania”

December 22-28 From Weekly ILI report from

Ohio Department of Public Health …

National Surveillance Data*: During week 52 (December 22nd – December 28th, 2019):  “The majority of the U.S. reported Moderate or High influenza activity … The proportion of outpatient visits for ILI was 6.9%, which is above the national baseline of 2.4%. 

Ohio - Current Ohio Activity Level (Geographic Spread) – Widespread

National Map: “Widespread Activity (Brown) - in 40 of 50 U.S. states - Week 51 (Ending Dec. 21).

49 U.S. states reported ‘widespread influenza activity’

between Jan. 12-18, 2020 …

Four weeks later - Week 3 of 2020 (January 12-18), a similar map shows  “widespread” influenza activity in 49 of 50 U.S. states. (See Page 2 of ILI report).

My comments: My earlier article on “school closing from the flu” listed 108 school districts or individual schools from at least 15 states that closed for ILI illnesses. Thirty of these schools or school districts were in Ohio.

Readers might be interested in NY data since the explosion of ‘Covid deaths’ in America was mostly confined to this state - in April 2020

ILI in New York was certainly higher than the previous flu season. ILI peaked at just under 8 percent in early February in New York.

According to weekly ILI surveillance reports produced by The New York State Department of Health, ILI was geographically “widespread” for 18 consecutive weeks in the Empire State (from the last week in November 2019 through April 11, 2020).

Starting with the next-to-last week of December, ILI was above the regional baseline (3.2 percent) every week through April 11, 2020

I examined weekly ILI Surveillance Reports produced by the NY Department of Public Health from November 30 through April 11, 2020. From data in these reports, it’s clear that cases of ILI in New York were greater than previous flu seasons from the same weeks.

Before “official Covid,” ILI in New York peaked in the first week of February 2020 (at 7.44 percent ILI, which is more than three times higher than the national baseline of 2.4 percent and higher or similar to the peak ILI of the 2017-2018 flue season, which is said to be the worst flu season in 40 years). 

One graph from the weekly surveillance report (see Page 4) shows visits to hospital emergency departments for patients suffering from ILI symptoms.

In the week ending February 8, 14 percent of patients in the Hudson Valley Region who went to the emergency room experienced ILI symptoms (almost 12 percent of patients from Long Island experienced ILI symptoms the same week).

Note: See Reader Comments for information showing how the flu vanished in New York state beginning around the lockdown dates.

January 1, 2020 - Big surge of ILI in South Carolina at the end of 2019

January 1, 2020 YORK COUNTY, S.C. (WBTV) - Doctors at Piedmont Medical Center in Rock Hill say typically at this time of year, they are seeing a trickle of flu cases in their offices. However, right now they describe the number of cases as a surge, and they say that’s especially concerning with several months still left in the season.

“If the current trend continues, and we actually still peak in February - it’s going to be a tremendous amount of outbreak,” said Dr. Arash Poursina, an Infectious Disease Specialist at PMC.

And outbreaks didn’t subside the rest of January …

SC flu tracker - Week of Jan. 18 -24 (South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control).

Geographic Spread: “Widespread.”

ILI Activity Level: “High” (11th week at this activity level).

Maryland too …

Jan 4, 2020 - BALTIMORE, MD — Nationwide, the flu season went into overdrive with a spike in the final week of the year. In Maryland alone, there was a 9.5 percent increase in outpatient visits to Maryland emergency departments in the last week of the year, according to the Maryland Department of Health. 

… The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday reported a dramatic spike in flu cases nationwide during the last week of December.

Summary: In one week, these were the national increases, according to CDC estimates:

Illnesses: + 1.8 million

Hospitalizations: + 16,000

Deaths: + 800

… Seasonal influenza activity throughout the nation has been climbing for seven weeks in a row.

The latest data from the agency shows that the virus has been widespread or striking regionally in 45 states, including Maryland. In every region of the state, flu activity is high, and outbreaks began ramping up in early December, according to state health officials.

After bad first surge in ILI, Louisiana experiences 2nd bad peak

Headline:Unusual flu season strikes in Louisiana; second peak to come

January 5, 2020 (WAFB) - Medical experts say this flu season is an unusual one.

The Centers for Disease Control estimates so far this season at least 6.4 million people have had the flu.

Dr. Michelle Flechas is a pediatrician at Our Lady of the Lake Children’s Health Pediatrics at Perkins.

…. “Our peak flu so far has been around Thanksgiving which is very, very early," said Dr. Flechas. “Flu is typically supposed to hit January and February so we’re not out of the woods.”

Idaho: Unusually fast and severe start to flu season

Jan. 13, 2020 - Federal public health officials declare the flu is now widespread in 23 states including Idaho

Jan. 13 - The Idaho State Journal reports that the flu season is off to an unusually fast and severe start across the U.S. 

(The CDC reports) all regions of the country are seeing an elevated number of flu cases …

Regionally, Washington state is experiencing the highest possible flu severity level in terms of the number of people seeking treatment for flu-related illnesses …

The fact that there have been flu cases in all of Idaho’s public health districts but the number of people seeking medical attention for the flu is minimal could also indicate that Idahoans experiencing flu-like symptoms aren’t going to the doctor or hospital for treatment, Forbing-Orr said.

“Many people don’t even go to the doctor when they get sick,” Forbing-Orr said.

My comment: This common-sense observation is important. Most people who are sick with ILI symptoms don’t go to the doctor or emergency room. These people know there’s nothing doctors can do for them and they decide to just “ride it out.” That is, ILI reports don’t come close to capturing everyone who was actually sick during a certain period of time.

weather.com chimes in …

Jan. 31, 2020 - The current 2019-2020 flu season is on track to be one of the worst in a decade. According to the CDC, between 19-26 million people have caught the flu since October and between 10,000-25,000 people have died.

A quick point about ‘revised’ CDC flu estimates …

As I will show in a future article, the CDC estimated on April 2, 2020 that total ILI cases in America ranged from 39 million to 56 million. The median of this estimate range is 47.5 million people. According to current CDC records, no flu season in history has produced more than 45 million ILI cases. 

The CDC later revised these estimates to 36 million cases, which is 3 million lower than the agency’s low-end previous estimate.

If the CDC’s previous high-end estimate of 56 million possible ILI cases was accurate, this would represent 17 percent of the country’s population experiencing ILI symptoms in the flu season of 2019-2020.

The mid-point estimate (47.5 million cases) would equate to 14.3 percent of the population experiencing ILI symptoms - approximately 1-in-7 Americans.

The current estimate of 36 million cases for the 2019-2020 flu season is nine million fewer cases than the current estimate of cases for the 2017-2018 flu season. I contend there were far more “sick” people in 2019-2020 flu season than the record-bad flu season of 2017-2018. For proof to support this assessment, please read this:

Flu tests administered surged to record numbers in 2019-2020

As I will show in another future article, the number of flu tests given in 2019-2020 (among surveillance health care providers) were 13.4 percent higher than the number of flu tests given in 2017-2018 (perhaps “the worst flu season in 40 years/”) The number of flu tests was 34 percent higher in 2019-2020 than the previous flu season of 2018-2019.

Whether positive or negative, flu tests might be the best thermometer to gauge how many people had ILI symptoms in a given year. As I view things, more sick people going to the doctor = “more flu tests administered.”

Flu tests administered by Year (Weeks 40 through 14 - 27 weeks):

2019-2020: 1.048 million flu tests

2018-2019: 783,412 - 265,000 fewer flu tests

2017-2018: 924,205

Including only flu tests from weeks 5 through 14, 214,320 more flu tests were given in this 10-week period in early 2020 compared to the same 10-week period of 2016 - an increase of 125 percent.

Flu tests in 2019-2020 (Weeks 5 through 14): 385,422.

Flu tests in 2015-2016 Flu Season (same weeks): 171,102.

California - Jan 19-25 (Week 4)

The geographic spread of influenza activity in California was widespread during week 4 (Jan.19-25). Outpatient influenza-like illness and hospitalizations were above expected levels.United States: National influenza activity remained high and continued to increase during week 4 (Jan.19-25).

During week 5 (January 26th – February 1st, 2020), the majority of the U.S. reported High influenza activity. The proportion of outpatient visits for ILI was 6.7%, which is above the national baseline of 2.4%.  

ILI was already above 4 percent in Marin County, CA by Week 41 (which is early October). It had increased to 15 percent by the third week of January. The terrible flu of 2017-2018 arrived in northern California in late December 2017 … But note how ILI was not sustained throughout that flu season.

Jan. 26 - Feb. 1 - Marin County, California - very interesting to me …

Note: One of my “early spread” case studies was “Shane”  from Marin, County, California who said in a NY Times post that he had a severe case of Covid in the “fall” of 2019 and later got two different positive antibody tests. So this report from that county caught my attention.

Influenza Surveillance Update - Week Ending February 1, 2020

Excerpt: “Local influenza activity continues to increase in Marin County with a spike in activity seen during January 2020. To date, the 2019-2020 flu season has been more severe than the 2018-2019 season.

Influenza-like illness activity in Marin County has remain elevated levels since early November, with a larger spike in activity seen starting in mid-December. 

A graph in this link shows that ILI reports were at 8 to 8.5 percent from Weeks 44 through Week 46 in Marin County. Week 44 could include a couple of days from October 2019. 

By the end of January/first week in February, ILI reports in Marin County were more than 14 percent.

January 31, 2020 - Utah

Jan. 31, 2020 - Utah Department of Health numbers show influenza-like illnesses are still on the rise, with high severity and widespread activity reported throughout the state. The rate of confirmed illness jumped in the last week for which data is available. The trend is … climbing a little earlier than usual because influenza season started a little earlier than previous years, McCaffrey said.

ILI was 12.6 percent in my region of Alabama in late January 2020

This is my state of Alabama. Note how ILI reached 2 percent in early October and was above 4 percent by early November. ILI spiked to 9 percent in late December and then was even higher in late January/early February 2020. This is when myself and my two children were sick with what I think was Covid.

Dothan, Alabama is 50 miles from my hometown of Troy. This article reports what I vividly remember - as myself and my two children were sick with ILI/Covid symptoms in this same time period. It seems like a third to half of my town was sick around these months.

Feb 7 - Dothan Eagle … A recent report by the Alabama Department of Public Health shows a sharp increase in flu cases in the last week of January, after rates of influenza-like illness cases dropped in the first two weeks of 2020.

In fact, flu cases in Alabama rose to 9.04% last week, a 41% increase compared to the week before. The trend is true nationwide as well, according to the Centers for Disease Control

Southeastern Alabama continues to be hit the hardest, with 12.6% of all doctor visits due to influenza-like illness; that means about 1 in 8 patients were seen for flu-related symptoms from Jan. 25 to Feb. 1.

As numerous articles above point out, ILI was very high in the South as early as November and December (and October in Louisiana). It was still high by the end of January and early February.

Editorial comment: I still don’t understand why the CDC didn’t test “archived” blood from blood donors from any Southern state, blood collected between November and early February. My strong suspicion is the agency didn’t do this because this region would have produced the highest percentage of positive “early” antibody results. (Officials do not investigate that which they do not want to “confirm.”)

Georgia ILI was elevated for at least 15 weeks beginning in 2019

Georgia Outpatient ILI percentages by week. Source: Weekly ILI percentages from Georgia Department of Public Health

Week 50: 6.7 percent (Dec. 8-14):

Week 51: 9.6 percent (Dec. 15-21

Week 52: 12.2 percent (Dec. 15-21)

Week 1: 9.5 percent (Dec. 29- Jan. 4)

Week 2: 7.1 percent - (Jan. 5 - 11)

Week 3: 6.9 percent - (Jan. 12- 18)

Week 4: 6.7 percent (Jan. 19- 25)

Week 5: 8.1 percent (Jan. 26-Feb. 1)

Week 6: 7.9 percent (Feb. 2 - 8)

Week 11: 8.0 percent (March 8-14) - Last pre-lockdown reporting week

Note: I was surprised I didn’t find more schools or school systems from Georgia in my “school closing” story. Then again, the above dates and percentages show that the big spike in ILI in Georgia happened when schools were out for Holiday break.

Texas ILI data might be more eye-opening …

See Graph 2 from this ILI chart (emailed to me by a subscriber from Tarrant County, Texas.) It shows that ILI in Texas was nearly 16 percent by Week 51 of 2019 and was still at 11.5 percent by Week 5 of 2020. It also shows that ILI in Texas was above 3 percent from early/middle October 2019 through middle April 2020. This would be at least 27 weeks (more than half the year) where ILI percentages in Texas were above the national baseline of 2.4 percent.

In Conclusion …

Numerous data metrics illustrate that the 2019-2020 “Flu Season” was not normal or typical. I believe information presented in this article strongly suggests a novel virus was causing ILI symptoms in many more Americans. It’s also worth noting that these ILI reports would not include “asymptomatic” or mild cases of possible Covid. 

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(I don’t know if it shows, but it took days of work to compile this article. I actually began saving articles and ILI reports more than three years ago …. so this article represents a 36-month research project. Subscriptions and donations which support such research are greatly appreciated.)