A Covid Expert Speaks …

In March 2020 … And gets everything wrong… and is labeled a “superstar physician.”

Dr. Michael S. Saag wears a white lab coat like Anthony Fauci … so people listened to him. A key warning he passed along to citizens was the settled science that the novel coronavirus is spread via physical surfaces like door knobs and gasoline pumps.

IMO, it’s a worthwhile use of my time to remind readers how spectacularly wrong -and clueless - so many alleged experts were about Covid.

While working on a different research project, I read a sports column by Joe Goodman, the leading sports columnist in my state (for the website al.com).

In a sports column from 2020, Goodman included a reference about a “superstar physician” employed by UAB. According to Goodman, Dr. Michael S. Saag is/was one of the leading voices in the state and country who was battling the scourge of Covid.

Wrote Goodman:

“The times are strange indeed when a sports guy like me is hyping up a university’s superstar physician in a column about the start of football season. UAB’s players are tough, but they got nothing on the heroes in scrubs.

“UAB football will be playing this season for healthcare workers on the frontlines, and the coronavirus patients they’re helping. UAB Hospital is fighting the virus on all fronts — from research to acute care to long-term therapy for people with lingering symptoms or long-lasting complications.”

***

After reading Goodman’s accolades (which I knew would be wrong), I had to research this Sgt. York-like medical hero. Helpfully, Joe provided a link to a column Dr. Saag wrote for al.com readers on March 13, 2020.

Today, I want to re-publish this column so, with the passage of time, astute readers can assess the wisdom and guidance this expert shared with trusting citizens.

Dr. Saag is a “nationally-known” expert. About a month after this column was published at al.com, he also had an op-ed published in The Washington Post.

I should also note that one of Dr. Saag’s UAB colleagues, Dr. Jeanne Marrazo, later become the successor to Dr. Anthony Fauci as director of the NIAID (until RFK, Jr. gave her the ax).

Among other Covid gifts to humanity, Dr. Marrazzo led the safety trials on remdesivir, an FDA-approved drug that must have killed thousands of alleged “Covid patients.”

Here’s Dr. Saag’s warning column. I added a few comments and boldfaced text of the many sentences that turned out to be spectacularly wrong.

Headline: Renowned AIDS expert: Alabama not prepared for ‘major storm’ of COVID-19

NOTE (from al.com): Dr. Michael S. Saag is professor of Medicine and Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. He is world-renowned for his work on the HIV virus … He passed this on to us in the form of an open letter to the citizens of Alabama …

March 13, 2020:

Fellow citizens,

“Our State is about to be hit by a major storm and, unfortunately, we are not nearly ready to respond.

“The COVID-19 pandemic is sweeping the globe, our nation, and our state. We can see it coming. It’s real.

“If this were a Category 5 hurricane bearing down on the coast of Alabama, predicted to hit in a day or two, we would have already heard hurricane warnings and we would have a sense of what to do. But COVID-19 is so new, so unique, we have trouble comprehending what it is and we don’t know what to do.

“The coronavirus is already in Alabama.

My comment: I tried to contact Dr. Saag’s colleague, Dr. Marrazzo, by email and tell her of early coronavirus cases in our state. She ignored my “early spread” evidence and email.

“We just don’t know the extent yet because our ability to test for the virus is restricted to the most severe potential cases and it takes a few days for the results to return …”

My comment: By March 13, 2020, America still didn’t have any diagnostic tests? What’s up with that?

“… Our case load is going to get exponentially worse over the next six – 10 weeks, and the epidemic in our state will be especially noticeable once testing becomes more available …”

My comment: He got this right - the “epidemic” of cases always follows PCR testing.

Per this expert, Covid is spread via physical surfaces

“Here’s why:

“Like other coronaviruses, the SARS-CoV 2 virus, which causes COVID-19, is spread by droplets, typically dispersed by coughing or sneezing.

“If the droplets land directly on someone’s face, infection will almost certainly follow. But most often, the droplets land on surfaces that are touched by another person, and then transferred from that person’s hand to their face by touching their nose or mouth.

“Based on knowledge from other coronaviruses, the virus can remain infectious on the surface where it landed for up to one week. So touching an object that is contaminated by the virus, such as a door knob, a water faucet, or a gas pump handle, for example, can readily transmit the virus.

“Of note: The virus is not transmitted through the air, so masks don’t help in folks who are uninfected (except perhaps to keep someone from touching their face) …”

My comment: Egads! One of the best-known Covid experts said the virus wasn’t transmitted through the air and doorknobs were the great risk.

I consulted Google AI to see if it agreed with this esteemed expert:

Google AI: “While you can potentially get COVID-19 from a doorknob or other contaminated surface, the risk is now considered to be very low and not the main way the virus spreads. The primary mode of transmission is through respiratory droplets and aerosol particles that travel through the air. “

My comment: Thank you, Google AI. Go get yourself a cup of coffee.

“The SARS-CoV 2 coronavirus is a new infection for humans.

“This means that anyone who gets infected with the virus has no baseline, protective immunity and will become sick to some degree. Fortunately, the symptoms of infection are very mild to moderate for over 80% of people infected.”

My comment: More than 80 percent of the “infected” are going to have symptoms? More than half (at least 50 percent) of the people who tested positive via the PCR tests Dr. Saag said were so so important had zero symptoms.

“… Unfortunately, the likelihood of severe infection, and death, increases with age. Someone over the age of 80 has up to a 40% mortality risk, whereas a 20-year-old has < 1% risk of mortality. Those in between have higher risks of death proportionate to their age …”

My comment: The Infection Fatality Rate for someone 80 or older was 40 percent? By Year 2 of the Pandemic, this alone would have killed tens of millions of Americans. Also, the Infection Fatality Rate or “mortality risk” for someone under 20 was 0.0000 percent.

“· Once we are able to test widely, we will identify the large number of undiagnosed patients. Massachusetts just started more widespread testing this week and colleagues of mine at one of the larger hospitals diagnosed 100 new cases in the last 2 days …”

My comment: Give 1,000 PCR tests (or 200) and you are going to get at least 100 “new cases.”

“… Once we determine who is already infected in Alabama, we can expect a doubling of the number of cases every 5 – 6 days if we do nothing.

My comment: This was about right but only because the number of people getting PCR tests was growing exponentially.

“What else happens if we do nothing?”

“Based on current estimates, up to 70 to 120 million people in the US will contract the infection. That is ~1/3rd of the entire US population.

“Here is a scenario to illustrate what seems likely to happen in Alabama over the next 10 weeks:

“With a doubling rate of infection of 5 – 6 days, cases rise exponentially over time.

“This means that we can go from 50 cases to 25,000 cases in 10 weeks.

“If 20% (5,000) of these patients are significantly ill, at least half of them will need to be in the hospital (2,500).

“Of those, at least half will need to be cared for in the ICU (1,250). And once in the ICU, they could remain there for weeks, clogging the ability to admit new patients to the ICU.

“And this scenario is only after 10 weeks; at 20 weeks from now, there could be up to 500,000 total cases or more in Alabama (you can do the ICU math).

“UAB hospital has up to 300 ICU beds; other hospitals in Alabama have fewer ICU beds. And in all hospitals in Alabama today, most of those beds are already occupied. It is easy to see that hospital beds, especially ICU beds, will be in short supply as the coronavirus epidemic unfolds …”

My comment: The hospital in Troy, Alabama was a ghost town in mid March to April 2020.

“So the question then becomes: Where do the new, coronavirus patients with severe disease go?

“Italy currently gives us some tragic insight. In Lombardy, Italy, last week, up to 200 patients needed admission to the hospital. But there were no more beds available. So the physicians had to scour the hospital making difficult decisions about which patients were too sick to recover and discharge them home to die in order to make room for those who had a chance to live …”

My comment: The patients discharged from the hospital probably all survived and are probably still living. It was the patients who were “treated” in this hospital who were in dire straits.

“And I just heard from a colleague in Switzerland. They are on the verge of having to make the same decisions. No one wants to ever be in that gut-wrenching position.

“The biggest concern is not the absolute number of infections; rather, it is the timing of when these infections occur.

Even if we don’t change the total number of cases that will occur in Alabama, delaying the time when they become infected will decompress the pressure on the limited hospital beds in the state, especially ICU beds. As illustrated in this New York Times graphic: The absolute number of cases in each curve is the same. What’s different is the time of infection. If we can simply delay the number of new cases, we have a chance to broaden the curve and save our fragile healthcare systems, and by extension ourselves, from peril.

*** (Thank you for helping me share the experts’ copious misinformation.) ***

“What can you/we do?”

“Understand the details of how the virus is spread and take every precaution to protect yourself and your family.

My comment: We should understand the virus is spread from door knobs?

The following Pandemic must-do’s tell us Dr. Saag was an avid supporter of lockdowns and must have thought locking down the world wouldn’t produce any negative health effects.

“Specifically we should:

• “Avoid large gatherings of people (concerts, religious services, auditoriums).

• “If you are in charge of organizations that sponsor large social gatherings, cancel or postpone events. Now. Webcasting is a good alternative for many meetings.

• “When in a crowd, use ‘social distancing’, staying at least 4 – 6 feet apart if possible

• “Be mindful of surfaces touched (especially handles, of all types)

• “Use your knuckle or elbow to turn on light switches

• “Use a paper towel to lift gas handles at the pump

• “Wash hands thoroughly (at least 20 seconds) with soap and water after any potential exposure, and frequently throughout the day for good measure (use of hand sanitizer with > 60% alcohol will suffice in lieu of soap and water)

• “Keep a bottle of sanitizer at the entrance of your house; use it upon entering and leaving

• “No handshaking (!). Elbow bumps will suffice.

• “No hugging or ‘social kissing’ when greeting friends or relatives

• “Use sanitizing wipes on surfaces in public areas prior to use (e.g., grocery cart handles, gym equipment, trays)

• “If you feel sick (or not ‘right’): STAY AT HOME. Do not go out and risk infecting others

• “If you feel very ill, contact your provider for guidance on where to be seen.

You’ll be tested on this later; the tests are vitally important

• “If you feel you have COVID-19, and are not very ill, it is important to be tested outside of a doctor’s office or an emergency room. (We can’t do that in Alabama now; this needs to change)

• “Help the state purchase tests for COVID-19. ASAP.

My comment: “Marsha! Marsha! Marsha! … Test! Test! Test!” (Also, buy hand sanitizer by the barrel.)

• “Once tests are more readily available, we should set up testing sites in areas outside of existing clinics, hospitals, and emergency rooms throughout the State.

“Folks, the virus is here. The clock is ticking on how we, as a community, respond. If we wait too much longer, our healthcare system will become destabilized from the onslaught of cases.

My comment: Based on my research, tens of millions Americans had already been infected by March 13, 2020 and already had acquired natural immunity.

“This will result in difficulties for those with COVID-19 for sure, but also for everyone else who doesn’t have the infection and needs medical care for other conditions (heart attacks, strokes, cancer, and the like).

My comment: I wonder if the good doctor has noticed an increase in “heart attacks, strokes, cancer and the like” since the “vaccines” were rolled out. (Probably not.)

“Returning to a meteorological metaphor, we currently have a “hook echo” on the radar screen. The tornado is already touching down. It’s time for us to get to our “safe places” to minimize destruction of our healthcare infrastructure and loss of life.

“We are in this together. Let’s act now!”

(End fear-mongering.)

Michael S. Saag, MD, is Professor of Medicine and Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Conclusion ….

If someone asked me how a faux pandemic happened, one answer I would give is that America had thousands of “experts” who wrote thousands of scare-mongering op-eds for our country’s leading news organizations, dispensing ridiculous medical guidance.

These medical and science experts were then labeled as “superstar physicians” by leading MSM columnists like Joe Goodman.

I don’t how society can purge jaw-dropping numbers of ignoramuses, but this mandatory project should have commenced five years ago. I also wonder if this was this doctor’s Covid expertise, how screwed up is his HIV/AIDs research?

In summary …

“Stupid is as Stupid does.”

And that’s all I’ve got to say about that.

Writer gratuities via Ko-Fi.